Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 669 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today, all in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Florida vs. Saint Joseph’s
The Charleston Classic is already underway, with Miami and Missouri State well into the second half. Following that game, we’ll get Florida and Saint Joseph’s, in which the Gators will try to stop the bleeding from what’s been a brutal start to 2019-20.
Florida’s effective field goal percentage entering the game is 42.6%, 306th out of the 353 Division I teams. They’ve especially struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 24.1%, but they attempt fewer three’s than the average team, negating the impact of that at least a touch.
It’d be surprising if Florida continued to shoot this badly, but even last season—one in which they won an NCAA Tournament First Round game—they were worse than the Division I median in effective field goal percentage. The roster does look different, and below the median is a far cry from 306th in the country, but it’s certainly possible for Florida to get by on defense and defense alone, and it’s also possible they just won’t get by this year.
Keeping their totals even lower is the fact that Florida’s been playing some of the slowest basketball in the country, just as they did last season. They have yet to have a game extend to 70 or more possessions, something that will be tested heavily by a Saint Joe’s team that’s been running all over the place. Saint Joseph’s slowest game was a 76-possession encounter with Loyola. Florida’s fastest consisted of 68 possessions with North Florida.
It’s unclear who will control the pace this afternoon. Against their common opponent, UConn, Saint Joseph’s turned in 84 possessions while Florida kept it at 66. That’s a gigantic difference, and the outcome of the total will hinge on it. With lots of late movement towards the over (perhaps the higher-than-expected total in Miami/Missouri State is encouraging bets in that direction?), don’t be afraid to swim against the current with this one.
Pick: Under 149.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Utah @ Coastal Carolina
A ways up the coast from Charleston, Coastal Carolina is hosting a November tournament of their own: the Myrtle Beach Invitational. They get Utah in the first round, and while Utah’s justifiably a favorite, bettors are surprisingly down on the Chanticleers.
Coastal Carolina just got their first win over a Division I opponent on Monday night, but it was an impressive one: a 21-point thrashing of Middle Tennessee State. Both of their losses came by just one point, and while both came at home, and they looked good in neither, the overall sample suggests CCU is only a point or two worse than Utah, home-court advantage included.
Utah, meanwhile, is still riding a statistical high from that 143-49 victory over Mississippi Valley State nearly two weeks ago. Larry Krystkowiak’s team has played only three total games, and while they’ve impressed so far, there are a lot of questions, including who exactly Krystkowiak plans to play. Junior college transfer Alfonso Plummer was kept on the bench in Utah’s last game, against Minnesota, after playing double-digit minutes in each of the first two contests. He’ll probably be out there again tonight, but the inconsistent rotation is another reminder that despite the 3-0 record, Utah’s very much a team figuring itself out.
Pick: Coastal Carolina to win (+175). Low confidence.
Hofstra @ UCLA
Hofstra misses last year’s seniors.
Last season, the Pride finished the year with the 17th-best offense in the entire country by KenPom’s ratings. They had the third-lowest turnover percentage in Division I. They had the best shooting percentage on free throws, and the 13th-best on three’s. They were dominant offensively, thanks in large part to now-graduated seniors Justin Wright-Foreman, Desure Buie, and Jacquil Taylor.
So far this year, things have been rough for the team that remains. The offense is still good, but it’s nowhere near what it was, and the defense is even worse than last year’s underwhelming showing. The Pride are 2-2, but those wins have come over the New York Institute of Technology and Monmouth, the latter of whom is rated by KenPom as only the 256th-best in the country.
UCLA, contrarily, has somewhat impressed so far, albeit against marginal competition. After an opening game scare against Long Beach State, they’ve won three straight games by 15 or more, all against teams comparable to Hofstra in quality. They’ve climbed in the ratings from 106th, where they entered their first game, to 95th entering today, while Hofstra’s fallen from 123rd to 154th.
Still, Hofstra’s the smart play here. Oddsmakers are trying to find Hofstra’s level, but there’s enough data to make an educated guess as to where that is, and the best guess is still better than UCLA’s poorest opponent so far. It’s possible this will come down to how hard UCLA’s reserves push it. It’s also possible Mick Cronin will find himself in an uncomfortably close game.
Pick: Hofstra +14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
