Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,822 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Some college futures below, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though.
Davidson vs. New Mexico State
It’s unclear when Nate Pryor and Clayton Henry might come back for the Aggies, but with no word and the possibility of a smaller role upon initial return, it’s probably safe to not consider them too strongly. There’s also an angle here where this is a pretty early morning for NMSU, while Davidson’s playing rather close to home. Those aren’t the basis for this—the fundamentals favor Davidson—but they don’t hurt.
Pick: Davidson +2.5 (-115). Medium confidence.
Charlotte @ Appalachian State
I’m not sure where this is getting warped, but both teams have played about exactly as expected so far. As with Pryor and Henry for NMSU, I haven’t seen any word on Brice Williams or Musa Jallow for Charlotte. We’ll see.
Pick: Appalachian State to win -150. Medium confidence.
Ball State vs. Florida International
Ball State almost suffered a disastrous collapse against Nebraska-Omaha on Saturday, but…they still won. And the final score wasn’t far off the initial expectation. One stretch of bad play following one stretch of pretty good play. Not too much going on there.
Pick: Ball State +1.5 -110. Medium confidence.
***
SEC
Georgia has certainly played better than Alabama to date, but with this game almost locked in place, this effective early line on the Tide is fairly good value.
Pick: Alabama to win +185. Low confidence.
Big 12
It’s comparably likely Oklahoma State is the fourth-best team in the Big 12 as it is that Oklahoma State’s the best team in the Big 12. They’re the ones in the driver’s seat, though, almost locked into a Big 12 Championship appearance where the worst-case is getting a second crack at an Oklahoma team that could theoretically beat them next weekend. We
Pick: Oklahoma State to win +280. Medium confidence.
ACC
If I understand the ACC tiebreakers correctly, NC State needs to win out over their last two (they should be favored in each matchup) while Wake Forest loses out (they play Boston College on the road after visiting Clemson this weekend). They’d then likely be underdogs against Pitt, but at 50-to-1, they only need a 13% chance of winning for this to have a positive expected payout.
Pick: NC State to win +5000. Low confidence.
