Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,787 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Vermont @ Northern Iowa
Is this a reaction to a reaction?
Northern Iowa disappointed in its opener, shooting 13% from three-point land and 66% from the free throw line as the Panthers were upset at home by Nicholls. This was, on the surface, surprising. Northern Iowa’s a solid program, and after a down year last year they’re returning a large share of their minutes.
At the same time, though, it wasn’t shocking. You can return as many guys as you want, but if the team was as bad as UNI was last year, it might not help you. The reality is that the Panthers haven’t been the stud mid-major they used to be for most of the last six seasons, with 2019-20 being the lone exception. Vermont, meanwhile, is about the same as they’ve been for a decade now. UNI’s a deserved favorite, but this spread is too wide.
Pick: Vermont +6 (-110). Medium confidence.
George Washington @ Maryland; McNeese @ TCU
If the ROI on this is too small for you, that’s fair, but there’s some slight overvaluing of the underdogs here. Not much from either in terms of a recipe for a shocker.
Pick: Parlay – Maryland to win, TCU to win (-995). High confidence.
