Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,336 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Towson @ UMass
It’s Frank Martin’s first week of games at UMass, and I guess the questions are these: Does he immediately make this roster better than it is on paper? How much stock should we put into a blowout over Central Connecticut State? How much stock should we put into Towson letting Albany back into it earlier this week after having the game wrapped up?
My personal answer to all of these is…not too much. We’re still at a point with this one, as far as I can tell, where we’re aligned with the situation on paper. The situation on paper says this is a tossup on the moneyline. Three and a half’s a lot of points to get in that kind of contest.
Pick: Towson +3.5 (-118). Low confidence.
Houston Christian @ Texas
Texas should hold Houston Christian to very few points tonight, especially with HCU (formerly HBU, Houston Baptist) playing more down-tempo on offense these last few years. On defense, they still have the effect of speeding teams up, which is dangerous, but I’m not sure I trust Texas’s offensive efficiency this early in the year. That’s always been a problem for Chris Beard’s teams. Sensational defense, but the ceiling for the offense is somewhere around “good.”
Pick: Houston Christian +36.5 (-105). Low confidence.
