Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 222 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Seattle @ New York (AL)
The Yankees’ injury situation remains fluid. Clint Frazier is back, but Giovanny Urshela fouled a ball off his knee last night. While nothing is broken, Urshela might miss some time, which would be a disappointment for those in the Yankees’ circle clamoring for the young journeyman to take over at third for the younger, highly-touted-as-a-prospect, Miguel Andujar.
The rationale for replacing Andujar with Urshela is straightforward: Urshela has hit better so far this season, and doesn’t come with Andujar’s defensive liabilities.
Andujar, though, has only played in eight games in 2019, recording just 34 plate appearances. He missed the entire month of April. Of course, the argument could be made (and is being made) that he should DH when he’s in the lineup while Urshela plays every day. But while that might work for now, with Greg Bird’s injury opening up first base for Luke Voit, and Giancarlo Stanton similarly sidelined, Urshela is probably not a great long-term option as a contributing member of the Yankees’ offense. Yes, he’s been great so far (.409 OBP, 152 wRC+), but his career numbers are still brutal for an everyday third baseman on a contending team (.294 OBP, 72 wRC+).
Pick: New York (AL) to win -155. Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis
Let’s talk about Joe Musgrove.
Part of the Pirates’ haul from Houston in the Gerrit Cole trade, Joe Musgrove is dealing through six starts (and one relief appearance). The right-hander’s ERA sits at 2.63 (with a FIP of 2.74 to match), even after a tough outing last week against the A’s (seven runs, five earned, in fewer than three innings of work).
Some of Musgrove’s success, even with the strong FIP, might be luck-based. His HR/FB ratio of 2.8% is less than half that of 2018’s major league leaders (Trevor Bauer led qualified starters with a 6.2%, Jacob deGrom was right behind with a 6.3%), suggesting that some balls that have stayed in the park so far won’t do so forever.
Still, Musgrove’s xFIP, which adjusts for HR/FB%, is only 4.17, and while that isn’t spectacular, it’s still very low for a pitcher giving up home runs on fewer than three percent of fly balls.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +128. Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Arizona
File Mike Soroka’s name under early Rookie of the Year candidates in the NL. The top-50 prospect made his debut last May at the age of 20, and while he didn’t make too many waves in his five 2018 big-league starts, he displayed competence (over five innings per start, 3.51 ERA, 2.85 FIP).
Since coming back up a few weeks ago from AAA, Soroka is pitching even better than last year, with quality starts in his last two outings and no more than two runs allowed in a game. His FIP is an eye-opening 2.25 across the small sample, and he has yet to allow a home run.
Soroka is unusual as a prospect. For one thing, he’s Canadian, but for another, his fastballs only sit in the lower 90’s, slow for a right-hander, and his offspeed isn’t anything breathtaking.
What Soroka does possess is a two-seam fastball that he can place where he wants it, which so far this year is most likely what’s responsible for his high groundball-inducing tendencies.
Opposing him tonight is Luke Weaver, a fellow promising young pitcher. In his second full season at the MLB level, Weaver is turning heads like he did over his small 2017 stretch in the majors, striking out over a batter per inning and keeping runs to a minimum.
So, if you’re up late tonight and are looking to watch a ballgame, this might be the one.
Pick: Atlanta to win -103. Low confidence.
Washington @ Los Angeles
The betting calculus for this blog’s MLB picks changed recently, and the Nationals are largely responsible. I’ve picked them to win nine times this season and they’ve won twice, giving an average return on investment of -54% or so per pick.
Nine picks is a small sample, of course (which is part of why no no-picking-the-Nationals rule has been established), but it’s a big difference from, say, the Yankees, who are also talented and dealing with injuries but have gone 9-5 when picked, yielding a per-pick ROI of 16%.
Patrick Corbin starts tonight for Washington, which is great because he’s a good pitcher, but won’t change the offense, which is 20th in the MLB right now in wRC+.
Pick: Washington to win +138. Low confidence.
