Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,399 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Houston @ New York (AL)
The wind’s blowing out towards the right field foul pole. Both teams can hit. If McCullers and Cole do dazzle, there’s a slightly above-average chance of getting bailed out by extras. Go ahead and swim against the current.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Boston
As in New York, the wind’s blowing out towards the right field corner. Nathan Eovaldi’s been good but not excellent, and the Red Sox are playing a strong offensive lineup today.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
Texas @ Minnesota
The numbers just kind of line up here, especially when taking into account that the Rangers’ bullpen’s a bit more gassed than that of their hosts.
Pick: Minnesota -1.5 (+115). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Oakland
One of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball against Mike Fiers, who might be a good guy but hasn’t posted a FIP under 4.50 since 2016.
Pick: Toronto to win -130. Low confidence.
Arizona @ Miami
Jazz Chisholm is electric and started the year like a rocket ship, but we don’t know if he’s actually that good. Over 142 career PA’s, his 111 wRC+ is good for 1.0 fWAR (which is awesome—five WAR over the season awesome). But his .390 BABIP so far this year is probably unsustainable.
Anyway, the market’s probably overrating the impact of Chisholm’s absence, which is helping push this line to an advantageous spot.
Pick: Miami -1.5 (+155). Low confidence.
