Editor’s Note: Joe would say this isn’t that great, but over a sample size of 263 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick for today’s games, along with a few in the World Series futures market.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN are all great sources of data.
- The writeups for picks of individual games aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
New York (NL) @ Los Angeles (NL)
It’s easy to be skeptical of sensational headlines concerning individual player performances. And while some of them surrounding Cody Bellinger are certainly overblown, the sentiment isn’t unreasonable.
Bellinger leads the MLB in WAR by more than a full win. He leads in two of the three Triple Crown categories, and only trails Christian Yelich by one home run in the third. He’s been an absolute monster at the plate, and even if he only hits at his 2018 levels from here on out, he’d finish the season with around 7 WAR, a breakout performance from a guy who was already supposed to have broken out, having won the NL Rookie of the Year award unanimously in 2017.
His average exit velocity is up from the mid-89 mph range over his first two seasons to 92.5 mph this year, and over half the balls he’s put in play have left his bat at speeds at or above 95 mph. Neither of these metrics are the best in the league (or threatening to become so), but with a sprint speed faster than roughly 95% of players, they’re enough for Bellinger to be the best hitter in the league.
Bellinger’s also striking out at a massively lower rate (13.3% of plate appearances) than he did in his first two seasons (26.6% and 23.3%, respectively) while taking more walks (up to 14.2% from 11.7% and 10.9%).
Is Bellinger going to win the NL MVP?
It’s much too early to say.
Is Bellinger, at 23, currently one of baseball’s best players?
Yes.
Pick: Over 8.5 +100. Low confidence.
MLB Futures
I’ve been keeping an eye on futures lately, and as of today, there are a few ripe picks in the World Series market.
Entering today, I had low confidence picks in on the Astros (+700), Dodgers (+800), Yankees (+600), Twins (+1700), and Indians (+1200).
In looking for ways to diversify that portfolio, four picks passed the numbers test (i.e., does the current probability of the event happening give me a positive expected return on investment at these odds?).
Conveniently, taking all four of these only flips two scenarios from profitable to unprofitable (the Astros or Yankees winning), and those are only marginally unprofitable. Meanwhile, I can double down on the Dodgers, the current World Series favorite according to FanGraphs, and open doors with three upside-heavy teams.
The Cubs have righted the ship after their disastrous start, and while the Brewers are giving them (and in all likelihood will continue to give them) a tough division race, their other main competition—the Cardinals—are in a tumultuous state. There’s still a lot of time, but things look promising for the Cubs in the Central, which logic translates to them having either the second or third-best chance of winning the NLCS. Better still, reinforcements for their beleaguered bullpen may be coming, as rumors are swirling about the Cubs being willing to make a charge at Craig Kimbrel once doing so would no longer cost them a draft pick.
The Red Sox have also righted the ship, though they’ve stagnated a bit as of late. Still, while they’re 6.5 and 7.5 back of the Rays and Yankees, respectively, they’re more likely than not to emerge victorious from the AL Wild Card dogfight, if one even materializes (which depends on the Indians and A’s, to a large extent). All of which translates, in the most likely of scenarios, to a Wild Card game against the Rays or Yankees with Chris Sale on the mound. This isn’t where Boston wants to be, but it isn’t all that bad of a place to be when it comes to possibilities.
The Nationals might be righting the ship. It’s too early to tell, but a two-game sweep of the Braves after taking three out of four from the Marlins at least partially washed out the pain of the four-game sweep at the hands of the Mets. They, and their injuries (from which they appear to be turning the corner), have dug themselves a deep hole out of which to climb, but the top end of their rotation is so strong on paper that if they can make the playoffs (about a 30% possibility right now, according to FanGraphs), they’d be a scary opponent (Fangraphs has them as one of three NL teams more likely than not to win the Division Series should they make it). None of which is to say that the Nationals should be taken seriously as a contender right now. All of which is to say that the Nationals should be taken at their currently longshot odds.
Pick: Los Angeles (NL) to win World Series +400. Low confidence.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win World Series +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Boston to win World Series +1300. Low confidence.
Pick: Washington to win World Series +4500. Low confidence.
