Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,740 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,616 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today. Just these two plays:
Nevada vs. San Jose State
I can’t tell if this line is a little narrow because of the last two Mountain West games or if this line is a little narrow because of the “hard to beat a team three times” trope. I have a hard time not liking a favorite who’s trying to play their way into the tournament against a team they beat by 27 and 15 in the regular season.
Pick: Nevada -4 (-107). Low confidence.
Utah State vs. New Mexico
This is more of a stretch, because the line’s probably wider than it should be. The game should be so high-scoring, though, and Utah State is such a good team (that’s kind of lost in their bubble conversation—they’re a really good team, better than Indiana for sure) that we’ll trust them to get it done. All Mountain West for us today.
Pick: Utah State -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
