Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,270 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Three of ‘em for tonight.
Atlantic Sun Tournament: Bellarmine vs. Stetson
In the two Bellarmine/Stetson regular season games, there were an average of 59.5 possessions. These were two of the slowest games in Division I hoops this year.
KenPom has tonight’s game forecast to go 66 possessions, a significant increase. Should the system be trusted?
I’m buying it, and here’s why: With the exception of Bellarmine and, narrowly, FGCU, each team in the A-Sun this year averaged a faster-tempo game against Stetson than their in-conference average. With Bellarmine averaging 65.1 possessions per game, this translates to 65 or 66 tonight, if the trend holds.
It’s not so much about the trend specifically as it’s about what drives the trend. While Stetson likes to slow it down on offense, their average defensive possession length is in the nation’s quickest quartile. They allow immediate shots. It’s something they do. And while Bellarmine didn’t run the floor that much against them in January, a sample size of two is smaller than a sample size of 16. Is it possible this game will stay slow? Yes. Is it possible the teams will miss shots, causing other problems? Always. But in the probability game, this is more likely than not to go over, and it’s one of the better plays on today’s conference tournament game docket.
Pick: Over 141 (-110). Low confidence.
Missouri Valley Tournament: Northern Illinois vs. Illinois State
Another rematch reaction. Illinois State and UNI closed the season with a two-game set in Normal. Northern Iowa swept the Redbirds. The result? Evidently a three-point boost in tonight’s line.
Is there the possibility of a mismatch? Possibly. There isn’t a specific corner of the game that jumps out, but it might be there.
Overall, though, it’s again just a sample size of two, compared to the breadth of these teams’ schedules. And in the second game, while overtime games aren’t ties and shouldn’t be considered as such, the game did last two overtimes. UNI didn’t just walk all over Illinois State.
There’s plenty of risk here, but again, it’s one of the better options available.
Pick: Illinois State +6 (-110). Low confidence.
Ohio Valley Tournament: Eastern Kentucky vs. Austin Peay
Not sure what’s going on here. Austin Peay did outperform expectations across the regular season pair of games, but the two still split the series. EKU’s defense should wreak havoc on Austin Peay’s turnover-prone offense, and while the Governors will have plenty of opportunities on the offensive glass, the nature of that mismatch may not apply, since EKU’s susceptibility probably comes more from fast breaks than an actual inability to rebound, which would be something more natural for Peay to exploit.
Maybe it’s Eastern Kentucky’s variability of play causing this? At their best, the Colonels thrashed Belmont and took Xavier to overtime. At their worst, well, they lost to Austin Peay (and SEMO, but that was on the road). I don’t know. I don’t see any red flags here.
Pick: Eastern Kentucky -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
