Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,044 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Lots of conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
South Alabama vs. Arkansas-Little Rock
Yes, this is pretty likely to be a low-scoring game. South Alabama likes it slow, UALR’s had a hard time keeping the same roster active. But the total being this low is overkill.
Pick: Over 131.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Illinois State vs. Indiana State
I’m not sure I track the logic on this one. These two just played a 152-point game, and each figures to be chucking up threes all night. They’ll miss a lot, but it changes the calculus when you’re taking that many attempts from deep.
Pick: Over 143 (-110). Medium confidence.
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky
In the regular season, games between these two went just 58 and 59 possessions. It’s not a great idea to base expectations fully off each team’s two slowest games, though. Especially when one of them still went over this mark by a decent margin.
Pick: Over 133 (-110). Medium confidence.
Now, the futures:
Sun Belt Men’s Basketball Tournament
What seems to be happening here is an overvaluing of Georgia State by the market. This makes sense. Georgia State’s long been a factor in the Sun Belt. Its effect here, though, is to open up Georgia State’s side of the bracket for other value.
That explains the first three of these (yes, four units on Appalachian State), but it doesn’t explain the last. With the last, there’s a disparity between how the market seems to be evaluating UT-Arlington and Louisiana-Lafayette over the course of the tournament (ULL’s evidently roughly three times as likely to win the tournament, in the market’s eyes) and how it’s evaluating them in the game that’s about to tip off (ULL’s only favored by a couple points). All longshots, all valuable.
Pick: Appalachian State to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Appalachian State to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Coastal Carolina to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Arkansas State to win +2500. Low confidence.
Pick: UT-Arlington to win +4500. Low confidence.
Missouri Valley Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
In the MVC, it’s teams further down the standings providing the value. Part of this is Northern Iowa’s inconsistency. By KenPom, the Panthers are only the fourth or fifth-best team in the league, but they’re the top seed, opening the door for Illinois State, if they can win tonight, or Bradley, if they can upset Loyola tomorrow. Another part of this is the probable overvaluation of the top teams—not just UNI, but Loyola and Missouri State as well. There are reasons neither of those two won the regular season title. This thing’s an open-ish race.
Pick: Bradley to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Southern Illinois to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Illinois State to win +12500. Low confidence.
West Coast Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Yes, we’re effectively fading Gonzaga here. They’re a great team, but the market’s gone too far. Two shots at ‘em, barring some big surprises.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +4000. Low confidence.
Patriot League Men’s Basketball Tournament
The Patriot League situation didn’t change much with Tuesday’s results, but the odds on Navy have crept up enough that they’re a pretty clear play. Yes, if Colgate and Navy both win two in a row, the Midshipmen will have to play on the road, but the probability of Colgate winning these next two isn’t 100%, and it’s not like Colgate’s some unbeatable force at home. Navy just played them tough there on Saturday. They can do it again.
Pick: Navy to win +325. Medium confidence.
Pick: Navy to win +325. Medium confidence.
