Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,802 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got an NIT Championship pick, and it’s also Opening Day, and with that begins our MLB betting effort for this year.
We’ve had a lot of success on our MLB futures over these last four seasons. We’ve profited on them in three of four years, and in two of those our return on investment was greater than 50%. We don’t expect to do *that* well this year, but we expect to pick up some units come September and October.
The way we approach this is to place two futures per weekday nearly every weekday of the season. We’re giving ourselves a few days off this year, to be used sporadically, but generally, that’s going to be the approach. Every day, Monday through Friday, we will place two futures. Each will be a medium confidence bet, so each will be two units. We’re starting with 750 units in our MLB futures bankroll, and we intend to hold onto 250 of them for the purpose of arbitrage plays or late-season hedging if that’s something which makes sense for us.
We’re also picking individual MLB games. We’ll start the season by picking one per day, but we’re watching a trend we found last year which might make us pick all the games in a given day now and then once the season’s gotten its legs under it. We’ll be tracking our season-to-date success on these game picks, so if that’s more your speed, or if you’d like to do both, join us. We can guarantee nothing, but we have a good track record on baseball.
Now.
The picks:
North Texas vs. UAB
I can think of three explanations for this line being where it is, instead of where KenPom has it. Sometimes, these reasons are good reasons, so let’s check the tape:
The first is that Abou Ousmane remains out for UNT.
The second is that UAB won the last meeting, and it wasn’t all that close a game.
The third is that a sample of bettors really likes Jelly Walker.
Moulaye Sissoko has played so well in his increased role that it negates a lot of the concern over that first reason. Also, Ousmane’s been gone for three games now, and KenPom adjusts decently quickly.
Overall, then? We’ll trust our favorite system.
Pick: North Texas +2 (-107). Low confidence.
NL Central
We’re opening with a longshot, because the value’s there and depending how hot and cold teams start, it might not be there for many more days.
The Pirates are young, and the Pirates have a good farm system, and the Pirates are playing in a division with the heavily overvalued Cubs, who are sucking up some oxygen and creating opportunity around them. This is highly unlikely to work out, but we can put it out there and forget about it, and if the Pirates do start hot, we’ll have leverage.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +6000. Medium confidence.
World Series
Again, here, the Brewers’ playoff chances are probably being undervalued because of, in part, the Cubs, who have some of the worst eROIs in all markets using FanGraphs probabilities. Along with the Phillies and Giants, the Brewers should be in the mix for a wild card spot even if they don’t win the division, and there’s a solid chance they win the division. The Cardinals have been going for it the last few years, but the Brewers are only about one win worse on paper.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +5000. Medium confidence.
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
I’m not sure what the stats are on MLB teams’ success while raising a banner, but the Astros are the deserved favorite here, and this isn’t a bad price for that. Framber Valdez might regress a little from last year, but the Astros’ bats are the better ones, and the Astros’ bullpen is probably narrowly better, and Dylan Cease could regress from last year as well. We’ll take the reigning champs to get to 1–0.
Pick: Houston to win -136. Low confidence. (Cease and Valdez must start)
