Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,704 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College basketball futures context! We’ll start with 100 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to hold onto half of that in case we want to hedge.
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
SIUE is, per KenPom, the best team in this tournament, and after last night’s win, they’re one of six remaining. They still have to win three more in a row, and four games is a lot in four days, but they’re favored tonight and should be favored tomorrow if they can get there. This is a good place for us to start. We like starting here.
Pick: SIU-Edwardsville to win +600. Low confidence.
Horizon League Tournament
Wright State has to play on the road tonight, but after that, it’s neutral-site games in a league where they aren’t the best team, but they’re firmly in the second group. The Horizon League reseeds after each round, but with Detroit Mercy a worthy foe for Youngstown State, Wright State might not be the lowest seed remaining if they can get through tonight.
Pick: Wright State to win +800. Low confidence.
West Coast Conference Tournament
And lastly, before we get to tonight’s action, two horses in this one, including one whose nickname is actually a type of horse.
BYU has a high ceiling. They have a very low floor, but they do have a high ceiling. The talent to challenge good teams is there. To beat them? We haven’t seen it much, but when you get close as often as BYU’s gotten close, we believe in it. Especially at 40-to-1 odds. There’s also, thanks to BYU, a break in this tournament on Sunday, which means though BYU will have to win four games to win it, they’ll get to try to do that in five days.
Santa Clara is similar and different. They haven’t flashed the same ability to hang with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s that the Cougars have (though they did give Saint Mary’s a good run on New Year’s Eve), but they’re a solid basketball team with a great scorer in Brandin Podziemski who’s almost always taken care of business this year, and has beaten up on a few noteworthy foes (Boise State, Iona, BYU). They’d only have to win three, and they should be a good-sized favorite in their opener on Saturday. Again, this is a good price. Especially if we decide we want to hedge against this based on how our portfolio is doing as a whole.
Pick: Santa Clara to win +3000. Low confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +4000. Low confidence.
Michigan @ Illinois
Here’s the thing about Matthew Mayer and caffeine:
This can’t be the first time he’s done this.
I mean, yes, probably the first time he’s poisoned himself with it, but the guy clearly loves energy drinks, and late-season rest isn’t all that unusual. Michigan is playing better, but they also just needed a defensive boner, a dramatic shot, and overtime to beat an accomplished but mediocre Wisconsin. I-L-L.
Pick: Illinois -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Memphis @ SMU
Memphis has been doing this thing where they don’t put teams away, and it’s scary, but they’re so good during the stretches when they’re good (relative to their AAC competition, I mean) that they often get away with it. We see them getting away with it tonight, with the good stretches being great.
Pick: Memphis -6 (-114). Low confidence.
