Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,051 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball and Major League Baseball, each in both the single-game and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 141–109–2 and we’re down 7.74 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we’ve got some solid value alive that should start cashing tonight and tomorrow.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re going to try the same approach this year.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. If it wasn’t that, it was close. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We’re beginning this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Arizona vs. Clemson
Clemson has played two of its best games of the season back-to-back. Maybe they’re peaking at the right time, but our better guess is that the Tigers are going to regress a little, having had a few days to cool off. We’ve liked what we’ve seen from Arizona so far this tournament.
Pick: Arizona –7 (–110). Low confidence.
UConn vs. San Diego State
I don’t think the 135-point total from last year’s championship game is all that relevant, but I do think the 69 possessions are. That might be at least a little indicative of how these teams might approach one another. Assuming UConn controls the pace and pushes for a more rhythmic game, we think the scoreboard stays a little busier than expected here.
Pick: Over 136.5 (–110). Low confidence.
North Carolina vs. Alabama
UNC hasn’t played as many breakneck games since getting out of the nonconference portion of the season, and that’s not really an ACC tempo thing. They play fast, but they don’t rush that much. Also, if one team’s struggling to make shots (a real risk for both), the over here’s going to be in trouble. Too much can go right for the under for us to pass it up.
Pick: Under 174 (–115). Low confidence.
Iowa State vs. Illinois
Iowa State’s offense can struggle, but Illinois does not play defense. They opt out of it. If you give Iowa State as many open looks as the Cyclones can expect tonight, they usually do fine. Illinois might score a lot themselves, but Iowa State should keep up.
Pick: Over 146.5 (–115). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
We’ve got two dead units on tonight’s games—bets on Northwestern and Dayton to reach the Elite Eight that will register as losses after tonight. We do, however, have some live units as well. We’ll get a nice little payout if Alabama knocks off North Carolina, and we’ll get a nice big payout if San Diego State can shock UConn.
We’re adding a few futures here, on Duke and Alabama—both teams whose paths are mostly unaffected by home-crowd advantage concerns (we think the Houston and Arizona advantages in Dallas and Los Angeles are being overhyped compared to UConn in Boston). We didn’t have anything on either in these specific markets prior to today. We’re playing it very slow today, though. The question of how much UConn’s home-crowd advantage matters is a big one, and even in an extreme case, UConn’s own value is bad, so we’re not going to start hedging just yet. We’ll see what the Huskies do tonight and proceed accordingly tomorrow.
Pick: Duke to win tournament +2500. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to make national championship +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to win tournament +4000. Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
Our process for MLB moneylines is to look at teams FanGraphs implies have positive eROI for the day, then look for red flags associated with those teams: Banged-up players, tired bullpens, weather oddities, etc. On Opening Day, there aren’t a lot of red flags, especially for a team with a retractable roof. The Diamondbacks should be a bigger favorite. We believe FanGraphs accounts for Paul Sewald being on the IL. We trust Zac Gallen.
Pick: Arizona to win –210. Low confidence. (Freeland and Gallen must start.)
AL West
The nice thing about this daily approach to MLB futures portfolio-building is that we can take a lot of shots. At the beginning of the season, we blindly bet whatever has the biggest eROI according to FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, proceeding until we’ve bet as many teams in as many markets as we can without ever betting negative-value bets. Right now? The Angels have better than a two percent chance of winning the AL West. Mike Trout’s great, remember? The rest of the roster has enough upside to make this worth our while.
Pick: Anaheim to win +5000. Medium confidence.
NL Central
A similar phenomenon here. We’ll get to some favorites eventually, but we’re leading off with the Pirates, who though bad might contend in an also bad National League Central Division.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +1800. Medium confidence.
