Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 131 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 55% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Here are four picks I like today. As always, I rely on a lot of great sources of data to make these picks, including KenPom, ESPN’s BPI, and Fangraphs. If you don’t have a KenPom subscription but you like college basketball and numbers, I can’t recommend one strongly enough. If you don’t regularly visit Fangraphs, but you like baseball and numbers, you should add them to your rotation.
All lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this:
MLB: Detroit @ Toronto
It’s Opening Day in the Western Hemisphere, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. is out with a bad CBA.
Still, if you’re looking for a baseball moneyline, the Blue Jays aren’t a bad bet today. They only need to be a 57.5% favorite for this to have an expected positive return on investment, and they’re at home with Marcus Stroman on the mound.
Stroman had an unsuccessful season last year, posting a 5.54 ERA, but his FIP (ERA adjusted for fielding and luck) was only 3.91, much more in line with his numbers from 2016 and 2017.
FIP has its own flaws, of course, but it’s more predictive year over year than ERA, so if Stroman’s health is back to normal, he should be a solid pitcher once more.
Now, this is baseball, so no pick is a lock, but if you make enough plays with positive expected value, you come out ahead.
Pick: Toronto to win -135. Low confidence.
CIT Quarterfinals: Hampton @ NJIT
Yes, we’re making CIT picks here, and if you don’t like it, NIT Stu will have a word with you about the importance of supporting the NIT’s allies.
NJIT is only a three point favorite against Hampton tonight, despite being the better team on paper and playing at home, where they actually have a greater measured “home court advantage” than Duke (the measurement I look at for home court advantage takes the difference in road and home performance in conference games, so this may be an indictment of how NJIT performs on the road rather than a revelation concerning the Wellness and Events Center, but the metric stands).
It’s possible some of the low line has to do with whatever caused Abdul Lewis’ absence against Quinnipiac, but I haven’t been able to find any information about what caused that, and whether whatever it was will cause his absence again tonight, ten days later.
If NJIT fails to cover due to Lewis not playing, I can live with that, but the upside is high given where the line currently stands.
Pick: NJIT -3 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT Sweet Sixteen: Tennessee vs. Purdue
The first game in Louisville tonight pits arguably the best point guard in the country, in Carsen Edwards, against one of the best forwards, Grant Williams.
Tennessee can’t afford to give Purdue too many second chances on offense, nor can they let Purdue bury them from deep, but both defensive rebounding and perimeter defense are weaknesses for the Vols, with their correlated offensive traits strengths of the Boilermakers. That spells trouble.
Yes, Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander are going to make it tough for Purdue’s bigs to score inside, but the numbers and the matchups favor Purdue, despite the line favoring Tennessee.
Pick: Purdue +2 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT Sweet Sixteen: Virginia vs. Oregon
Recency bias seems as though it’s almost definitely affecting the line in the Louisville nightcap, but some of that may actually be reasonable. Oregon played so well in the first two rounds that, in the context of the small sample that is a college basketball season, ratings systems are actually vaulting the Ducks up their lists.
Still, while Oregon excels defensively, and Payton Pritchard may give Kihei Clark fits, Virginia is too efficient at both ends of the court to take lightly.
It’s college basketball, so little is ever surprising, but Virginia is being undersold by the public.
Pick: Virginia -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
