Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,785 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today, though we do have a pair pending on FAU and Kansas State to get to the Final Four. We won’t hedge on those. Famous last words.
UConn vs. Arkansas
The memory of Arkansas beating Gonzaga is fresh in everyone’s mind, and deservedly so. That was a big upset, and a significant accomplishment. As for UConn…
There’s a difference between picking UConn to win six games (at this point, four) and picking them to win one. Picking them to win the tournament requires believing in them to go a certain number of games in a row without a debilitating implosion, either defensively or in the backcourt or on the sideline. One game? They’re one of the best teams in the country. Arkansas is good, but it’s not that.
Pick: UConn -3.5 (-113). Low confidence.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
UCLA is not 100%, and Gonzaga is playing better than they have all year, and I still don’t see how that’s enough. Gonzaga’s defense is dogshit, and a lot of that might have been effort in WCC play, but that’s not exactly a switch you can flip. These guys allowed more than a point per possession to Grand Canyon six days ago. Even if they’re firing on all cylinders at the other end, UCLA can keep it together by playing within themselves. From everything we’ve seen of UCLA in the Mick Cronin era, that’s what we can count on them to do.
Pick: UCLA -1 (-110). Low confidence.
