Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,030 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only in single-day form. No futures markets open by the time we got to these.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 131–100–1 and we’re down 7.21 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We got smacked yesterday, so we’re going back to moneylines today.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we’ve got some solid value alive for the NCAA Tournament, and we’ve got some NIT value happening as well.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State
We think too much is made of Tom Izzo’s “March success,” but we also think too much is made of this Michigan State team being underwhelming. They’re still top-20 in kenpom, and the nice thing about Izzo is that we do feel confident he’s comfortable in this setting. Chris Jans had the one upset of UConn, but it’s not like he’s some proven wizard in this thing.
Pick: Michigan State to win –122. Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. McNeese
We still aren’t sure if Will Wade’s a good coach. We know the man can recruit. We trust Gonzaga, who’s done this a whole lot. Wish we were in a position to pick more totals and spreads, but those have not been going well for us, so back to moneylines it is, at least for the moment.
Pick: Gonzaga to win –300. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
From previous futures, we stand to gain a lot from these teams doing well: Purdue, Arizona, Houston, Gonzaga, Duke. From other previous futures, we stand to gain a little from these teams doing well: Auburn, Clemson, Baylor, Alabama, Tennessee, San Diego State, BYU, Illinois.
We’re adding ten more today in a variety of markets, only allowing ourselves to take a team once and taking them at their best value. Of these ten and the thirteen above (there’s overlap, so the total number is only 19), every one but one is a kenpom favorite in their first round game.
There are teams we don’t particularly like in here, but we’re trusting our model unless it’s really glaring, like an injury.
Pick: South Carolina to reach Sweet Sixteen +450. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to reach Elite Eight +350. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego State to reach Elite Eight +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Colorado State to reach Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Dayton to reach Final Four +5500. Low confidence.
Pick: Illinois to reach National Championship +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Duke to reach National Championship +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Colorado to reach National Championship +12500. Low confidence.
Pick: Auburn to win tournament +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa State to win tournament +2000. Low confidence.
