Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 103 bets, but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 56% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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It wasn’t pretty last night, but thankfully, it wasn’t so brutal that I lost all credibility. Hopefully we claw back today. If not, though, basketball’s still fun, right?
Here are the best picks I found for today’s games. Thankfully, nothing jumped out to me from the accursed CIT. As always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this up.
LSU vs. Yale – NCAA Tournament First Round
Yes, LSU might be playing a little worse than normal without Will Wade. Presumably, distractions hurt teams at least somewhat, and not having their normal in-game coach is odd.
Still, LSU’s a talented team playing at full strength in terms of personnel, and I think there’s something to be said for a team who had one of their best players murdered before the season being more equipped to handle adversity, or at least more used to it.
Also, Yale’s defense is suspect. Which isn’t a knock—they’re a good Ivy League team. But LSU should score a lot of points.
Pick: LSU -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Michigan State vs. Bradley – NCAA Tournament First Round
It would be hyperbolic to say Bradley might not score.
But will they score 50?
Pick: Michigan State -18.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Maryland vs. Belmont – NCAA Tournament First Round
Maryland turns the ball over way too much. But Belmont doesn’t force turnovers.
Belmont is understandably a bit of a darling. Rick Byrd is an incredible coach, and their program is in great shape. They’re experienced (Maryland is not), their offense is one of the most efficient in the country, and they’re disciplined on defense.
But for all the love Belmont is deservedly receiving, Maryland isn’t getting enough credit. This is a team that won 13 Big Ten games, whose worst loss came to Illinois on a neutral court, and who has one of the better defenses in the nation.
I’m not saying it’s a lock, but the consensus is undervaluing the Terps.
Pick: Maryland -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Nevada vs. Florida – NCAA Tournament First Round
Nevada and Wofford are fascinating. They ended up in similar spots, and they even have the exact same record, but how they got here is completely different.
Nevada got the worse draw of the two, having to play a Florida team who came closer than you’d think to winning the SEC Tournament. Yes, Florida lays eggs from time to time. Their offense isn’t great. And yes, Nevada protects the ball so well that Florida’s primary defensive weapon should be neutralized.
But the Gators should slow down Nevada, and might be able to frustrate them. Two and a half points is enough cushion to take the guys from Gainesville.
Pick: Florida +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Kentucky vs. Abilene Christian – NCAA Tournament First Round
To be clear, I don’t think Abilene Christian has a shot in hell of winning this game. This isn’t some wild upset pick.
The spread just looks too big for two teams who take their time on offense, especially when one of them is playing without P.J. Washington. Kentucky will win, but I’d guess it’ll be by 20 or fewer.
Pick: Abilene Christian +20.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Villanova vs. Saint Mary’s – NCAA Tournament First Round
Villanova has earned every bit of love they’re receiving from the betting public. Jay Wright’s program has thankfully silenced the narrative that Villanova can’t come through in March.
But this game is pretty much a tossup. There won’t be many possessions, and Villanova is going to have trouble getting good looks against Saint Mary’s, whose low rate of opponent three-point attempts has at least something to do with their strong perimeter defense.
Pick: Saint Mary’s +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Michigan vs. Montana – NCAA Tournament First Round
Montana has to play Michigan in the first round for the second consecutive year, which is baffling given that Bradley is also in Des Moines today, but here we are.
It should look a lot like last year.
Pick: Michigan -14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wofford vs. Seton Hall – NCAA Tournament First Round
Recency bias favors the Pirates, but here’s the thing: The last time Seton Hall played a team as good as or better than Wofford was December 8th.
Maybe Seton Hall will speed Wofford up. Maybe Wofford’s shooting will grow cold.
Still, I trust the Terriers to get to the second round, and to do so with more than a two point margin.
Pick: Wofford -2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
