Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,298 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
NIT First Round: Davidson vs. NC State
This is extremely small and extremely anecdotal, but it supports the KenPom numbers: Last night, KenPom favored the over in each game, and the over hit in each game.
For whatever it’s worth. I’d be taking this even if that weren’t the case.
Pick: Over 138.5 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT First Four: Norfolk State vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State’s Sun Belt Tournament wins all came by single digits, and two of them were in overtime. That could be a team “putting it together.” It could be a team getting lucky. It could be a little bit of both.
Norfolk State seems very narrowly to be the better team. With these points, that’s a good deal.
Pick: Norfolk State +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT First Four: UCLA vs. Michigan State
Michigan State is not as good as any at-large bid-receiving team not named Wichita State.
At least, that’s what we think, based on KenPom. And KenPom, in a year in which cross-conference data is minimal, thinks the Big Ten is amazing. It has Wisconsin ranked 11th.
Pick: UCLA +2 (-110). Low confidence.
