Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,243 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Two last pre-first round futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Boise State vs. Memphis
Memphis’s resurgence from their December and January swoons (or swoon) is remarkable, but…it’s probably over. That isn’t to say they’ll definitely lose this game, or even that they’ll probably lose (it’s about a tossup). It’s to say that over the last three games, they’ve performed almost exactly as expected. They may not have found their level, but it’s as likely that they regress in a negative direction as it is that they outperform expectations.
Pick: Boise State +3.5 (-109). Medium confidence.
Tennessee vs. Longwood
Longwood has the fifth-highest three point shooting percentage in the country, and while that hasn’t come against defenses like Tennessee’s, it’s enough to give them a chance. For our purposes, it also raises the possibility of a little late-game run keeping this margin in the low end of double-digit territory.
Pick: Longwood +18 (-110). Medium confidence.
Kentucky vs. Saint Peter’s
It’s not that Saint Peter’s has a great chance against Kentucky so much as it’s that Saint Peter’s and Kentucky are both possession-extenders, something that should slow the overall pace of this game and keep the rubber band from stretching too far.
Pick: Saint Peter’s +17.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Kansas vs. Texas Southern
Similarly to Saint Peter’s and Kentucky, both Texas Southern and Kansas extend possessions. Texas Southern’s defense is also capable of causing some trouble for the Jayhawks, so long as they don’t hand over too many free throws.
Pick: Texas Southern +21.5 (-105). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
NCAA Tournament
These two, added to the 23 we’ve placed so far in the NCAA Tournament and the eight we’ve placed so far for the NIT, leave us with a wide assortment in which our win probability ranges from just under one percent to just under eight percent. All longshots, but the probability of at least one hitting is 54%, and any one hitting would still leave us profitable. This leaves us very exposed to a big loss, but there should be opportunities to hedge. We’re in on the following teams, of those playing today:
- Saint Mary’s
- Colorado State
- Murray State
- San Diego State
- Boise State
- Marquette
- San Francisco
- South Dakota State
- Vermont
Of course, these teams don’t exist in vacuums, so in the other eight games (being in on both San Francisco and Murray State gives us nine active teams across eight games) we’re hoping on upsets. Which is a fun position to occupy.
Pick: Seton Hall to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Ohio State to make Championship +10000. Low confidence.
