Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,764 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Two plays for the evening games:
Duke vs. Oral Roberts
I’m surprised this line has gone in this direction, though I understand the instinct. Oral Roberts is a lot better than they were two years ago, though, and this could be a bad matchup for Duke, who doesn’t exactly have a guy you’d love to put on Max Abmas.
Duke’s the best team out of the ACC, sure. But what does that mean?
Pick: Oral Roberts +6 (-110). Low confidence.
Northwestern vs. Boise State
We still believe there’s nothing wrong with ratings systems evaluating the Mountain West, and that the losses are just an oddity. We’re getting less confident in that, but we’ll stick with it here.
Pick: Boise State +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
