Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,963 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 123–90–1 and we’re down 5.47 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and we’re still on track to invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six or seven per day.
Wisconsin vs. Maryland
Wisconsin put together a good two games to end the regular season. Maryland hasn’t won two games in a row since January.
Pick: Wisconsin –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Arizona vs. USC
We do not buy the USC hype. Teams don’t flip switches. Yes, they got healthy, but they are still USC. We’re willing to risk getting bitten again.
Pick: Arizona –9 (–110). Low confidence.
Marquette vs. Villanova
We like Shaka Smart in conference tournaments, and we think Marquette shows up even without Kolek, but Villanova is the perfect team to bounce back after a performance like last night’s. They’re good enough to bounce back. We think they at least make this interesting.
Pick: Villanova +4 (–115). Low confidence.
SEC Tournament
I think there’s some value to the SEC Tournament in that its best teams know it doesn’t mean too much. The championship won’t affect the bracket in any way other than a bid thief situation. The semifinals mean little.
Either way, there’s value here, and there aren’t any red flags with these three teams. Even Mississippi State’s much-heralded four-game losing streak came against the other two of these and two Final Four contenders.
Pick: South Carolina to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Texas A&M to win +6000. Low confidence.
Pick: Mississippi State to win +6600. Low confidence.
WAC Tournament
This, like Sacramento State a few days ago, is an error. We aren’t above taking error lines.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin to win +2800. Low confidence.
Pick: Cal Baptist to win +5000. Low confidence.
Big West Tournament
It was a great moment for CSUN last night, closing out the day with an overtime win over UCSB. Can they do it again? It’s not a wild thought. They’re only 5.5-point underdogs tonight against Hawaii on the second rung of the Big West ladder.
Pick: Cal State Northridge to win +4000. Low confidence.
MAAC Tournament
It’s possible I missed an injury in Fairfield’s win over Iona, so you might want to look into that. If not, great value on the team who should be the tournament favorite.
Pick: Fairfield to win +300. Low confidence.
