Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,282 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Big Ten Tournament: Wisconsin vs. Penn State
A friend of mine likes to place bets as emotional hedges. He bets against his favorite teams. Gets himself consolation prizes.
This is not one of those.
But it could be.
If Penn State wins, they’re probably jumping into the field in our bracketology model, which isn’t gonna be a good look for our model, because Penn State will be a game under .500. I am going to regret not putting some guardrails on the model, having warned about this kind of thing becoming an issue as early as November and naively thinking, everyone will reasonably accept that a .500 record is an arbitrary threshold. You fool, Joe!
Anyway I think Wisconsin’s really good and may very well hurt someone’s heart next weekend (so long as Gonzaga’s not their second-round opponent), but Penn State’s the more underappreciated of the twain. We’ll see.
Pick: Penn State +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Mountain West Tournament: Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Fresno State’s been playing pretty well, lately, relative to themselves. Beat UNLV in Las Vegas. Took down Boise State in Boise. Took care of business last night against New Mexico.
But Colorado State’s a solid team playing a take-care-of-business game themselves, one where the urgency’s at a season high. As long as Utah State doesn’t wet the bed in the game before this one, the Rams will probably just need to win tonight to make the NCAA Tournament. I don’t have data on how stakes impact teams’ performance, so practically speaking, it means nothing, but it makes you feel a little better about the pick, right?
Pick: Colorado State -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
