Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,116 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the end of the week, with conference tournament futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another round of conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Duke vs. Syracuse
Buddy Boeheim’s out. How much does it mean?
Using Evan Miyakawa’s injury adjuster, the gap between Syracuse and Duke grows by 14% when accounting for today’s rosters. Applying this to the KenPom gap, we should only be looking at an 11.5-point spread here. Does it feel comfortable? Absolutely not. Boeheim is Syracuse’s best player. But at this spread, they might not even actually need to find a way to keep it close. Duke could roll through the Orange and Syracuse could still cover.
Pick: Syracuse +15 (-109). Medium confidence.
Northern Colorado vs. Eastern Washington
The night slot in Boise gives us two teams who play fast and shoot a lot of threes. We’ll try not to overthink it.
Pick: Over 154.5 (-109). Medium confidence.
Hawaii vs. UC-Riverside
I’m not sure how this line got to where it is, aside from maybe some semblance of home court advantage for UC-Riverside, with the tournament in suburban Las Vegas? Hawaii’s been the better team this year, and has played fine since Noel Coleman went out. It’s about a tossup, yes, but that still gives us a 2.5-point cushion.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5 (-109). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
MAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Yet another longshot for the portfolio. Ball State benefits from being across the bracket from Toledo. Kent State’s looking overvalued on the 2-line, possibly due to some recency bias.
Pick: Ball State to win +6500. Low confidence.
Atlantic 10 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
UMass is a narrow favorite today, and would then be one of eight teams remaining with a decent shot VCU gets knocked off in the quarters by Richmond or Rhode Island. Unlikely, but valuable.
Pick: UMass to win +15000. Low confidence.
Big East Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Getting Xavier out of the picture on their side of the bracket helps Marquette more than the change in odds suggests. Adding them to our group.
Pick: Marquette to win +900. Medium confidence.
Big 12 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
It’s not outlandish to think Iowa State, who’s played Kansas and Baylor tough in three of their four meetings with the pair, can make something happen this week in Kansas City. As with so many of these, it’s almost definitely not going to happen, but it’s good value.
Pick: Iowa State to win +3500. Low confidence.
American Athletic Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
Wichita State, if they get past Tulsa, will likely only be a two-point underdog or so against SMU, and potentially a four or five-point underdog if they get to Memphis. With Houston across the bracket, there’s value on the Shockers.
Pick: Wichita State to win +2500. Low confidence.
Pac-12 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’ve talked all year about the difference between Washington State’s results and their overall performance. Now, it’s creating some value for us. Tough one today, but if they get through it, they’ll have a manageable semifinal with some wind in their sails.
Pick: Washington State to win +2200. Low confidence.
SWAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
FAMU’s going to be an underdog tomorrow even if they do win today, but given how Alcorn State looked last night, it wouldn’t be an overwhelming spread.
Pick: Florida A&M to win +1200. Low confidence.
Big West Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
For those who follow such things, the storyline around the Big West Tournament is that Long Beach State, the league’s regular season champion, is not favored to win the tournament. What’s not being noticed in the market, it seems, is that the two teams likeliest to win it—UC-Irvine and UC-Santa Barbara—are on the same side of the bracket as LBSU, leaving the other side relatively open for the taking.
Pick: Hawaii to win +700. Low confidence.
Pick: UC-Davis to win +1500. Low confidence.
Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament
FAU’s up against it today against UAB, but they’re probably a bit undervalued, and that in turn creates value for MTSU.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Florida Atlantic to win +1800. Low confidence.
WAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Hurt to lose Utah Valley last night, but while Sam Houston State’s on the gauntlet side of the bracket, the difficulty is being overstated by the market. That, or their capability is being understated.
Pick: Sam Houston State to win +1400. Low confidence.
