Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,374 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of college basketball season.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures for a while, posted Monday through Friday. For context: The MLB futures portfolio started at the beginning of the season with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
NL Central
Assuming the Yankees and Astros hold onto the AL East and West, and assigning the NL West and East to the Dodgers and Mets, since those are our worse scenarios in those division, we’re basically in the following situation:
- If the White Sox lose the AL Central and the Brewers win the NL Central, we’re in great shape. Prior to today’s bets, +21.5% return on what we’ve bet on all division futures (slightly worse if it’s Cleveland rather than Minnesota who wins).
- If the White Sox lose the AL Central and the Cardinals win the NL Central, we’re in good shape. Prior to today’s bets, +9.9% return on what we’ve bet on all division futures (slightly worse if it’s Cleveland rather than Minnesota who wins).
- If the White Sox win the AL Central and the Brewers win the NL Central, we’re in concerning shape. Prior to today’s bets, -1.3% return on what we’ve bet on all division futures.
- If the White Sox win the AL Central and the Cardinals win the NL Central, we’re in bad shape. Prior to today’s bets, -12.9% return on what we’ve bet on all division futures.
We could get some help in the NL East and NL West, and the odds are probably on our side that we will. It’s likelier than not that at least one of the Dodgers and Mets does not win their division. Still, we want to shore this situation up, and with the market slow to react to yesterday’s results, with the Brewers gaining a game on the Cardinals (yes, it’s June, but those are high-leverage games when the race is so close), we’ll jump on this one. We can’t do much about the bad-shape scenario besides continue to watch for White Sox and Cardinals value while hoping on San Diego and Atlanta to make noise. But we can address the concerning scenario. So we will. This flips that scenario to narrowly profitable (+0.6%), while raising our upside should the White Sox—as is likely—not win their division.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -180. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -180. Medium confidence.
