Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,040 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 52–38–1, we’re up 7.84 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June has been good.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 128.41 units, or 12.3%.
Chicago (AL) @ Anaheim
Lance Lynn has been pitching a lot better lately, but he was already primed for positive regression. His xERA and FIP have been better than his ERA for months. He’s definitely the better arm this afternoon, but the Angels are the better team. We like them to take this series.
Pick: Anaheim to win –128. Low confidence. (Lynn and Sandoval must start.)
World Series
The Marlins are still the most valuable team out there in the markets, but Atlanta maintains its own positive value, and we try to take that now and then. You have to blend probability with value with these things, and our way of approaching that is to try to keep as many scenarios profitable as we can for ourselves with only betting positive-value plays.
Pick: Atlanta to win +400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Miami to win +5500. Medium confidence.
