Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 298 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Pittsburgh @ Houston
Josh Bell is narrowly behind Freddie Freeman in the NL All-Star election as of a few hours ago, which is about how the pair compare in value as well. While Bell is still having a monstrous season, with a 157 wRC+ to date, he’s been in a slump lately: his June wRC+ is only 98.
The most noticeable shift has come in home runs. While Bell was hitting one every 3.7 plate appearances from March through May, he’s only hitting one every 32.3 PA’s in June.
It’s much too early to say whether this is a slump or water finding its level, but one great thing about it for the Pirates is that even if Bell were to hit at his June pace for the rest of the season, his wRC+ would still finish somewhere around 128, a major step forward from the 108 and 112 he posted in his first two MLB years.
Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Colorado
Cody Bellinger has had a wild week. In addition to dealing with multiple incidents of fans running onto the field in attempts to hug him, the hype surrounding his 11-WAR pace, and the noise of All-Star voting, news emerged yesterday that the force of nature has been dealing with knee tendinitis. It doesn’t sound major—it’s a hindrance many likely play through without our hearing about it—but it still makes his performance all the more impressive.
Bellinger’s breakout has been otherworldly, but in case you haven’t looked at his numbers recently, here are some of the highlights. For context on the counting stats, the Dodgers have played 82 games, 78 of which Bellinger has at least appeared in.
Bellinger has hit 26 home runs, third in the MLB.
Bellinger has a .452 on-base percentage, second to only Mike Trout among qualified hitters.
Bellinger has a 195 wRC+, tops in the league, which means he’s having the best all-around offensive season of anyone in baseball.
Bellinger has amassed 5.6 WAR, again, best in the league (Bellinger grades out as a better defender than Trout and Christian Yelich).
Of the Triple Crown categories, Bellinger is first in the NL in batting average (.354), second in RBI’s (63, tied with Yelich), and third in home runs (Yelich has 29, Peter Alonso has 27).
And to make it all even more impressive (while also reminding everyone how young Mike Trout is), Bellinger is only 23. Trout and Yelich are both 27.
Goodness gracious.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Arizona @ San Francisco
A step behind the league leaders, but still trailing only Bellinger, Trout, Max Scherzer, and Yelich as FanGraphs measures the stat, Ketel Marte has manufactured 3.8 WAR to date, and leads the voting to start the All-Star Game at second base for the NL.
Who is Ketel Marte? If you don’t know, that’s perfectly understandable. I’d guess many don’t know, or didn’t until too recently. I’m not sure I knew he existed before this year, and while I’m not the world’s best baseball fan, I follow the sport enough to be writing these every day.
Marte entered the majors midway through the 2015 season, performing well, with 1.8 WAR to his name after 57 games. He was on the Mariners at the time, and remained on the Mariners through 2016, a season in which he was below replacement-level while dealing with a sprained thumb in the spring and mononucleosis in the summer. The following offseason, Jerry Dipoto shipped him to Arizona in a deal that netted the Diamondbacks Marte and Taijuan Walker while bringing Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis to Seattle.
At the time, the Diamondbacks didn’t value Marte highly enough to place him on the big-league roster, sending him to Reno for the first half of the 2017 season. While his performance was nothing special (89 wRC+ over the season’s second half, once he’d been called up), he was worth positive WAR, and earned himself the opportunity to play every day in 2018, though in 2018 he was moved more away from shortstop in favor of innings at second base.
Now, Marte is breaking out. As we said, he’s at 3.8 WAR to date, a number made more impressive in light of the fact he’s been spending half his time in the outfield, where offense is easier to come by. His wRC+ is 141. He already has 20 home runs.
What happened?
Cliché as it may be, the answer seems to lie in Marte’s launch angle. His XBA (expected batting average, given frequency and quality of contact) and XSLG (same thing but with slugging percentage), are each at or above the MLB’s 88th percentile, despite an exit velocity that ranks only in the 73rd percentile.
To be sure, the 73rd percentile is good, and his exit velocity has steadily climbed from his rookie year and the mono-plagued season. But his launch angle has completely transformed, going from 5.7 degrees last year to 11.7 this season. He’s getting the ball in the air, and even in one of baseball’s worst hitter’s ballparks, good things are happening.
Pick: Arizona to win (-101). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Anaheim
The A’s don’t have a single All-Star finalist, which might not be entirely deserved, but isn’t all that surprising.
Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien both rank in the AL’s top three at their position in WAR, but neither is at the top, and the race is tight for both. Not that the A’s care—they aren’t far off the pace for the second AL wildcard spot, and have, in Chapman and Semien, two young players they can build teams around for at least this season and the next.
Semien won’t be an unrestricted free agent until after 2020, and Chapman won’t even hit arbitration until this winter at the earliest (he’ll likely be a Super Two). Though given the stratification of the American League, and given Semien’s cost even through arbitration, it wouldn’t be stunning to see the Billy Beane flip him for a boatload of prospects in the next month. It’s more unlikely than likely, and Semien’s a native of the Bay Area, which isn’t meaningless, even if it doesn’t mean he’d necessarily give the team a discount.
Still, when the A’s sell, they sell hard, and there are a few contenders who could use an upgrade at shortstop. Orlando Arcia hasn’t done much of anything for the Brewers, and doesn’t project to be even an average hitter anytime soon. Willy Adames is young and full of potential, but the Rays might want a bat right now. And while Dansby Swanson’s having the best year of his career, he’s a ways away from what he looked capable of being when he headlined the 2015 draft.
In all, yes, Semien’s likely to stay. But don’t be surprised if you see him playing in October, wearing something other than the green and yellow.
Pick: Oakland to win (+148). Low confidence.
