Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,119 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures today, as we’ve run out of time before games start and will therefore be pushing the next round of hockey hedging to tomorrow. For context: The MLB futures portfolio started at the beginning of the regular season with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging.
AL East
Admittedly, this is partially a time crunch bet, but it’s positive value, and if we’re missing an opportunity elsewhere it’s a fairly low-value opportunity anyway. This helps us anchor our division portfolio a little bit further. We’ll take a more thorough look tomorrow, with no noon starts.
Pick: New York to win -1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win -1000. Medium confidence.
