Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,033 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Two markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 49–34–1, we’re up 7.35 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –119). April was great, May was bad, June has been good.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 126.47 units, or 12.2%.
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
You know the kinds of shots basketball players take at the end of the shot clock?
That’s this.
There isn’t anything else on the board we like, and while we have major qualms betting on the Royals, these odds are long enough that it’s justified. Do they have at least 26% chance of winning tonight? Yes. The Rays are so vastly the better team—we aren’t going to argue that the Royals will win—but the Rays aren’t *that* good, Shane McClanahan’s allowed a home run in four straight starts, etc.
We’ll chuck it at the backboard and hope for a long rebound.
Pick: Kansas City to win +287. Low confidence. (Cuas and McClanahan must start.)
ALCS
Are the Red Sox our AL team? We were thinking it would be the Rangers, but the market came around early enough and the value never quite got high enough for us to lean on them the way we’ve leaned on the Giants in the National League. We’ll take the Red Sox again today, making them a +254-unit scenario for us in the AL Pennant market given what’s been bet so far. It’s improbable, but it’s upside.
Pick: Boston to win +5500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Speaking of the Giants: We still like them, too. Ten straight wins now, and our chance of getting them in the playoffs is now up over 70% on FanGraphs. Keep it up, gang.
Pick: San Francisco to win +3300. Medium confidence.
