Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 284 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Cleveland @ Texas
Six years removed from his breakout season in Atlanta, including a two-year stretch in which he pitched in no major league games, Mike Minor is pitching almost as well as he did that season, and getting better results.
His 2013 numbers wound up at a 3.21 ERA, backed by a 3.37 FIP. This year, the FIP is worse (3.72) but the ERA is better (2.63). Remarkably better.
Ever since returning full-time, as a Kansas City reliever in 2017, Minor has been a more-than-solid pitcher. But this year has been a new kind of breakout. Minor doesn’t have spectacular strikeout or walk numbers. He doesn’t allow an unusual number of home runs, either high or low. His most notable statistic is his abnormal LOB% (87.6%), which is responsible for that nerve-inducing ERA/FIP gap and liable to close it as it regresses. Still, with today’s outing he’s poised to top 100 innings pitched on the year, and he’s a big part of the reason the Rangers are in playoff contention in June.
There’s plenty of time for the other shoe to drop. But even if it does, don’t expect Mike Minor to get squished. He’s healthy. He’s able. And he’s having as much success as ever.
Pick: Under 9 -110. Low confidence.
Miami @ St. Louis
The Pacific Coast League is a difficult environment for pitchers, and it’s gotten more difficult in 2019.
Already the home of high-elevation teams in Reno (4,506’), Albuquerque (5,312’), and Colorado Springs (6,035’), not to mention El Paso and Salt Lake City, the PCL switched this year from a specific minor league ball that’s still used in AA and below to the MLB’s ball, a ball that, as you might have heard, has been traveling pretty far these past few seasons.
It is in this environment that Zac Gallen, a Marlins prospect making his major league debut tonight in St. Louis, has posted a 1.77 ERA, backed by a 3.25 FIP.
Yes, Gallen has had advantageous surroundings by PCL standards, pitching for the New Orleans Baby Cakes, who inhabit not only a low-elevation city but the low-elevation half of the league. Still, these are impressive results, and the UNC product, while projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter, could be a valuable arm as soon as tonight for the suddenly pitching-strong Marlins (Marlins starters are currently seventh in the MLB in ERA).
Adding intrigue to the matchup is the wrinkle that Gallen was part of Miami’s haul in the Marcell Ozuna deal, meaning Gallen will be making his first big-league start against the team that drafted him.
Pick: Miami to win +165. Low confidence.
