Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,029 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Hit our hedge yesterday on the Avalanche, but of our 84 outstanding units on the Stanley Cup, none are on Colorado, so that average ROI listed above is more accurately around -4%. More on that front tomorrow or Saturday. Today, just MLB futures again, and for context on those: We started the year with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, but we also have another 520 set aside should we need to hedge down the line.
NLCS
There’s good value here, and it works well within our portfolio. Barring something wild happening with the Marlins, the Padres are our top choice in the NL. Until we place more units on Atlanta or San Francisco in the coming days, anyway.
Pick: San Diego to win +700. Medium confidence.
ALCS
The value here’s narrower, but we like our high upside on the Blue Jays. We have that, we have high upside on the Astros and Red Sox, we have low upside on the Angels, we have only a little downside on the Yankees. There’s a lot of season left, but at the moment, the most likely playoff field in the AL is Yankees/Astros/Twins/Blue Jays/Rays/Red Sox, in order. We have plenty of leverage if that comes to pass.
Pick: Toronto to win +500. Medium confidence.
