Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 272 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to make money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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Two picks for today’s games, and one futures pick.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
New York (AL) @ Chicago (AL)
We haven’t talked about Tim Anderson in a while. He’s slowed down, as could be expected, and his wRC+ now sits at 122 after ending April at 171. He’s actually striking out a bit less, but his power has dried up, and with it, his batting average on balls in play has dropped from its unsustainable .435 perch.
Still, Anderson is slashing .314/.343/.480, and has been, to date, among the top half of shortstops in the league, even in a strong year for shortstops (five are already above 2.5 fWAR, even with Lindor and Correa missing some time). His preseason projections had him slashing only .252/.286/.399, and he’s already matched his total projected WAR, meaning as long as he plays above replacement-level the rest of the year, he’s exceeded expectations.
Not a bad spot to be in as your employer discerns which players are part of the future.
Pick: Over 10 -105. Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Los Angeles
Clayton Kershaw is getting older, but while his ERA has worsened from the last few years, it’s still a very good 3.00 entering tonight.
It seems a bit odd to describe Kershaw as aging, given that he’s only 31, but injuries have taken their toll, even if he isn’t as old as, say, Justin Verlander. His fastball, always at or above 93 mph on average through 2017, dropped to an average velocity of 91.4 last year, and is down further this season to 90.5. He’s accordingly dropped his use of the pitch by about 10% from its 2016 level, pivoting towards more sliders, but his slider isn’t getting the same results it once did, and neither is his curveball. After averaging more than a strikeout per inning every season from 2014-2017, he dropped below that threshold last season, and is further tailing off this year. And not only is he allowing more contact, but that contact is becoming more and more dangerous, as his opponents’ average exit velocity against him has risen from 84.6 mph in 2017 to 87.2 mph so far this year.
Clayton Kershaw is still a great pitcher, and he’s adding chapters to a hall of fame career. But he’s no longer the best pitcher on the planet, or anything close to that.
Pick: Over 8 -115. Low confidence.
Who will win the NL East?
The Braves are still available as an underdog against the field in the NL East, despite having taken the lead in the division and added Dallas Keuchel to a rotation that already features four starters with FIP’s under 4.25.
Personally, having three previous low confidence picks (i.e., three units) on the Nationals at effective +503 odds (combined, this is how the three picks have averaged out), and one previous low confidence pick on the Braves at +225, another unit on the Braves allows me the flexibility to hedge later (with the Phillies, most likely) if necessary without turning a Braves division title into an unprofitable result within this market. The Nationals coming back to take the banner will still earn me a jackpot, and the Braves winning will now earn me a bigger sum.
This is a good play independent of prior engagements. The Braves are more than 50% likely to win this division as current rosters are constructed, and they have more chips in their farm system than the Phillies, which gives them the upper hand as we enter trade season.
Atlanta +110. Low confidence.
