Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,377 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures Monday through Friday these days. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
We take a break from the division side, because there’s new value on the postseason side.
We haven’t placed a bet on the Rays all year. This has been scary for us. We work with FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, and we sometimes fear those underestimate the Rays, a fear backed up by our perception that the Rays are usually on the cutting edge of analytics, giving them advantages even FanGraphs doesn’t know about just yet.
So, even though the value’s narrow here (the eROI is less than 0.5%), because it’s positive (it’s greater than 0.0%) we’re going to take it, and we’re going to take enough of it to make the Rays a profitable route for us in the ALCS, leaving our portfolio as follows:
| Team | FanGraphs AL Pennant Probability | AL Pennant Market Profit/Loss (units) |
| Houston Astros | 32.7% | +42.5 |
| New York Yankees | 29.5% | -14.0 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 12.7% | +17.5 |
| Boston Red Sox | 7.3% | +8.0 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5.9% | +30.0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 4.6% | -38.0 |
| Chicago White Sox | 4.1% | -38.0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1.3% | -38.0 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1.0% | +54.0 |
| Anaheim Angels | 0.7% | -6.0 |
| Texas Rangers | 0.2% | -38.0 |
For those of you scoring at home, this leaves our expected value in the market at +11.0 units, making our average outcome on what’s invested so far on the ALCS a 29% profit (our median is currently higher—a 46% profit).
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1600. Medium confidence.
