Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,569 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 91–81 so far, down 6.18 units. We had a good week last week. We’re having a bad week this week. Make of it all what you will.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Detroit @ Minnesota
It’s a tough day, with a lot of early starts and getaway days. The Twins are in a position to win this series, though, and they could really use a series win. Their bullpen is fresh. Bailey Ober’s been pitching well. This seems like the most straightforward game of the day at a reasonable enough price.
Pick: Minnesota to win –175. Low confidence. (Maeda and Ober must start.)
AL East
We’re going in twice on this one. Our portfolio’s devastatingly light on the Orioles, but this at least makes them a profitable scenario for us in the AL East, and by more than a two-unit cushion.
Pick: Baltimore to win +105. Medium confidence. x2
