Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 321 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
St. Louis @ Seattle
Daniel Vogelbach is an all-star. And as the second-best first baseman in the American League by WAR, it’s well-deserved.
When Vogelbach started the year with eight home runs in 17 games, and finished the month of April with a 211 wRC+, it was fair to expect some regression.
And, to be sure, Vogelbach has not been twice as good as the average major league hitter.
But in May, June, and what’s been of July, Vogelbach’s added twelve home runs and posted a 115 wRC+. Not outstanding, but good. Since June 1st, Vogelbach’s wRC+ is 132, fitting a narrative in which pitchers adjusted to him, and he then adjusted to their adjustments. Which might or might not be what’s happened.
Regardless, Vogelbach is a very real weapon. At a time when Seattle needs one.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay
After being acquired by the Yankees shortly before last year’s trade deadline, J.A. Happ proved a valuable asset. He went 7-0 over eleven starts, with a 2.69 ERA.
But beneath the surface, his 4.21 FIP pointed to some regression.
His 2019 has included some regression, but not just what might have been expected. A 4.21 ERA would be fine. A 5.23 ERA is not. And the 5.51 FIP backing it up is even more concerning.
Happ was skipped in the rotation the last time around, hinting that he might be on the verge of losing even more appearances. He’s giving up more than two home runs per nine innings, second-worst among qualified pitchers. His opponents’ exit velocity, long a strength of his, is in the poorer half of the MLB. In his last start, the Astros tagged him for eight runs on eleven hits, three of which were long balls.
The Yankees have reached a point in the standings where they can stand to play around a little with their roster. This could go two ways for the 36-year-old Happ: time to figure things out…or a new role as a mop-up man.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Texas
From 2010, when he entered the MLB, through 2014, Jonathan Lucroy was the fourth-most valuable position player in the majors by fWAR. Much of this was his defense, so since evaluations of defensive performance (especially that of catchers) are very much still in development, the numbers should be viewed with some skepticism.
Still, Lucroy was 13% better than the average MLB hitter by wRC+, and certainly was far from bad defensively. He was improving, too, with his best offensive season a 133 wRC+ year in 2014.
In 2015, though, in which he broke his toe, his performance dropped. He became a below-average hitter for the first time since 2011. And while he bounced back in 2016, posting 4.5 fWAR powered by a 123 wRC+, the three years since have been bad.
His offense has plummeted. But his defense has also struggled. He’s been, cumulatively, below-average behind the plate. All of this is adding up to negative fWAR, both over the course of 2017 and this year (last season, he was slightly better than replacement-level, clocking 0.2 fWAR).
There are plenty of ideas for why a catcher might get worse at defense as they age. Umpires might stop giving them the benefit of the doubt on close calls, effectively punishing them for their earlier strength in pitch-framing. The simple process of aging can slow down the arm, the glove hand, and the various muscles involved in blocking pitches.
Whatever the case, Lucroy is struggling, seemingly in both facets of the game. At 33, on a one-year deal, it might be the former star’s final trip around the circuit.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
