Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 929 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Three picks today as we wait to see what’ll happen with the schedules of the Nationals and Blue Jays this weekend. Focusing on some pitcher misconceptions in the blurbs, since that’s a common thread through all three picks:
Washington “@” Toronto
Hyun-jin Ryu was dominant to begin last year, just as he was dominant for his healthy stretches in 2018. He doesn’t strike out an abnormal number of batters in either direction, but he draws favorable contact and avoids walking hitters more than just about anyone.
And yet.
While Ryu has been a great pitcher since entering the MLB in 2013, with a 3.34 FIP and a 3.00 ERA, his ERA’s outperformed his FIP by abnormally large margins these last three seasons. Gaps of 0.97, 1.03, and 0.78 aren’t sustainable. It’s debatable whether the 0.34 career gap is sustainable. He’ll still be a solid weapon for Toronto over this short season, but expecting Cy Young contention isn’t reasonable. Look for results closer to those of Mike Foltynewicz than those of Max Scherzer.
Pick: Washington +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Anaheim
Dylan Bundy made a great start last week to open his year. Six and two-thirds innings, seven strikeouts, no walks, only three hits, not a lot of hard-contact outs. The word is that the Angels are trying to alter his approach, giving a higher share of the pitch count to offspeed pitches.
That might work.
It also might not.
One great start, even for a pitcher still on the ascendant side of the age curve, is not proof of concept. And if it was as easy as this to make something great out of a middle-of-the-road arm, it’d be done all the time.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
San Diego @ San Francisco
Kevin Gausman’s 2019 was an odd year. He struggled as a starter in Atlanta, posting a 6.19 ERA before finding his way to Cincinnati. There, pitching almost exclusively as a reliever, he turned in a 4.03 ERA. Much better.
Gausman’s season-long ERA came in at a 5.72. Not great, but with the reliever results looking good, perhaps a function of too many times through the order, right?
Well.
While that might be true—his Cincinnati FIP did outpace his Atlanta FIP—the biggest problem afflicting Kevin Gausman last year may not have been role so much as luck. Yes, his Cincinnati FIP was better than his Cincinnati ERA, and at 3.17 was good enough to make him look like a potentially highly useful reliever and/or opener, but even his Atlanta FIP of 4.20 was more than respectable. Yes, there were some contact issues—Statcast has his overall 2019 XWOBA at .331, only in the 39th percentile of the MLB—but even rolling a 4.20 FIP back a few tenths, you’ve got a respectable starter, and with Gabe Kapler more willing to keep the righty on a short leash than Mike Shildt was, the Giants might have gotten the best of both worlds when this is said and done.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
