Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,064 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and the futures today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 64–47–4, we’re up 13.00 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been great (we’ve won our last five and won eight of our last nine), but we’d love to finish it even stronger.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 109.79 units, or 10.6%.
Game 1: Anaheim @ Detroit
We don’t like doubleheaders, but it’s this or taking a low-upside proposition on the Mets that comes with a few red flags. What seems to be happening here is that the market is expecting a split, but it’s expecting the Tigers to prioritize Game 2 and the Angels to prioritize Game 1. This line of thinking would make sense if each manager had to declare their relievers for each game ahead of time, but they don’t. Situations will dictate what happens, and those situations have a solid chance of favoring Detroit. Shohei Ohtani might be the best player of all time, but he’s merely a good pitcher. Michael Lorenzen’s been better by FIP this year, and Ohtani’s been susceptible to giving up the long ball, even as his strikeouts continue to come in bunches.
First pitch at 10:10 AM Pacific Time.
Pick: Detroit to win +114. Low confidence. (Ohtani and Lorenzen must start.)
AL East
The Rays are still the favorites in the East, and deservedly so. Not only are the Orioles continuing to outperform their on-paper abilities, but they’re sending signals that they won’t buy aggressively, seeing how good they should have it over the next few years and probably doubting their ability to get through the October gauntlet this year, in particular. The Rays might not buy aggressively themselves, but they at least shouldn’t lose ground on that front.
Additionally, this just makes a lot of sense for our portfolio. We’re short on the Orioles in the AL East market but long on them overall, and we’re short on the Rays in all postseason markets, making any units we can wring from scenarios in which they do win a nice bonus. That’s where it stands right now. Things can and do and will change.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +120. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Another valuable team helped by its trade deadline intentions is the Angels, who went out and made the first real splash of the season last night by acquiring Lucas Giolito. He’s not an ace, he doesn’t change the game, but he helps their cause, he guarantees they won’t sell a single piece, and he hints that they might do even more acquiring. The path is rough, but it’s not impossible to get through it, and at these odds, it makes sense to add a little more on Anaheim.
Even if we bet against them above.
Pick: Anaheim to win +4000. Medium confidence.
