Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,616 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 102–90–2 so far, down 8.09 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. It’s been a bad week.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Baltimore @ Miami
There are very few prices at which we wouldn’t bet on Corbin Burnes to beat Roddery Muñoz. This is not one of them.
Pick: Baltimore to win –198. Low confidence. (Burnes and Muñoz must start.)
World Series
I think some of the hesitation from markets around the Twins is tied to their financial situation. The Bally Sports fiasco hit them harder than most, and their ownership is already historically reticent to spend. They’re reportedly unlikely to be too aggressive at the deadline.
Still, it’s easy to like their chances. They lead the Astros in the standings, and they’re only five games back of the Guardians, meaning if they can close that Cleveland gap, they’ll be the 2-seed. Even as the 5-seed, they’d be tough. Pablo López is much better than his ERA, and Joe Ryan is just as good as his. The trade deadline can help. But it rarely fundamentally changes teams. Sure, the Twins might be a little worse in the projections a week from today. But it’s not going to matter much more than a single game.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, just had a really nice week in Kansas City. They’re only half a game out of playoff position now, and they have a better roster than the Mets or the Cardinals. Pass those two and hold everyone else off, and they’re in the playoffs, most likely rematching in the Wild Card Series against the Brewers. That’s not a slam dunk, but it makes 65-to-1 pretty nice.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Arizona to win +6500. Medium confidence.
