Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 371 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Mike Montgomery is finally getting his chance to be part of a team’s designed rotation, for the first time since 2015, when he first came into the league with Seattle. It might take him a while to stretch things out, as he hasn’t faced more than 16 batters in an appearance since May, and even then faced only 18.
That isn’t a bad thing for the Royals, though. In the short term, anyway. Over the long term, yes, you don’t want your starting pitcher going only three or four innings every time out, but the Royals’ bullpen is strong relative to their rotation, with a 4.39 FIP that places them narrowly in the top half of the MLB.
The situation could change were Ian Kennedy to be dealt (Kennedy has a 2.16 FIP over 42 appearances, but he’s making $16.5M next season, which hampers his trade value). But for the time being, more bullpen innings isn’t the worst thing for Kansas City.
Pick: Kansas City to win (+135). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Anaheim
The Angels are a solid team. Were they in the National League, they’d be only a game back in the wild card race. But in the AL, they’re a handful of games out of contention, thanks in part to the dead weight that is Albert Pujols.
The narrative on Pujols is well-worn. He hasn’t produced positive fWAR over a full season since 2016, and even then, it was less than a win’s worth. He’s average defensively for a first baseman, and an average hitter overall, but first basemen need to be above-average hitters to provide their teams any value.
Pujols is trending in the right direction, his wRC+ having increased both this year and last year compared to the respective previous seasons, and at $29.5M/year these next two years and some marketing value, it’s understandable why the Angels are trying to at least get something positive out of their investment.
But at some point, the Angels’ good pieces are going to be so good that they have no choice but to contend, and when that comes, their employment of Pujols as anything more than a pinch hitter would be malpractice.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Seattle
Niko Goodrum is one of the Tigers’ best players. Which isn’t saying a lot, but at least says something. He’s been worth 1.4 fWAR to date, and in an intriguing development, the majority of that value seems to be coming from his baserunning.
Goodrum may not steal a lot of bases (eleven so far in 2019), but he’s fourth in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning statistic, BsR. The metric relies on three components, which boil down to the frequency and success rate of stolen base attempts (wSB), if a player advances further or less far on the bases on average compared to other players in similar situations (UBR), and how often a player grounds into double plays (wGDP). The bulk of Goodrum’s value comes from his UBR, which is the best in the league by more than half a run, demonstrating not only his impressive footspeed (his Statcast-measured sprint speed is in baseball’s top ten percent), but also his ability to not do dumb things.
It isn’t much, but it’s something, and with lots of club control remaining, it might make Goodrum a valuable trade chip as a serviceable infielder and excellent pinch-runner.
Pick: Detroit to win (+162). Low confidence.
