Editor’s Note: Over the last two years or so, Joe has published picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). That’s over 914 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus, or the closest approximation available, at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Opening Night. One bet for each game, though as I note in the Nationals blurb, you may want to keep an eye on the radar for the first.
New York (AL) @ Washington
Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer are two of the best pitchers alive.
This is also the first game of the season.
While Cole and Scherzer are, by nature, workhorses, it’s uncertain exactly how stretched out their arms are, and handing it off to the bullpen is a step down for each pitching staff, especially with Aroldis Chapman sidelined. The threat of rain could work both ways with this—damp games are said to keep scoring lower (though this is simply conventional wisdom and not something I have data on) and a shortened game could result in an under, but a rain delay could also send the starters packing earlier than planned. Keep an eye on the radar and where the odds are moving, but at least consider the over if you’re looking for action here.
Pick: Over 7 (-125). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Los Angeles
Chavez Ravine has been the third-lowest scoring environment in baseball over the last two seasons. Yes, the Dodgers are expected to have one of the best offenses in the game, and yes, Johnny Cueto’s not the Johnny Cueto he was in 2016, but Cueto’s still only 34. There’s reason to hope on a bounce-back.
It’s less likely to win than it is to lose, but with the odds longer than even, the Giants on the run line is the best play available for the opening night nightcap.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
