Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,478 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
When Major League Baseball began cracking down on the use of foreign substances, Charlie Morton’s name was among the first to come to many minds. The face of the Astros’ spin rate surge (in spin rate-aware circles), Morton’s reinvention seemed potentially destined for a crash.
It hasn’t happened.
In games dating back to June 22nd, Morton’s first start with checks in place, the guy’s got a 3.20 FIP across about 31 innings. If you include June 17th, Morton’s first start with everything announced, it’s a 2.99 FIP across 39 innings. Five of six were quality starts. 47 strikeouts against ten walks. Spin rate? Fairly constant.
I don’t know what’s happening, but it seems to still be working for the 37-year-old, so good for him. With Bryce Harper potentially out tonight, things look promising for Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta to win -130. Low confidence.
Oakland @ Seattle
Chris Flexen, the offseason’s best free agent signing, does not stop, and hopefully he doesn’t stop tonight, because I have money on this. The guy doesn’t strike many out, but xERA still likes him (3.99), and FIP still likes him (3.67), and his ERA’s even better (3.35). He also hasn’t gone fewer than five innings in a start since May, he’s only gone fewer than six innings once since May, and in starts dating back to May 27th his FIP’s down at 3.22 and his ERA’s a wizardly 2.15.
Win tonight, and the Mariners are only two and a half back of the A’s, at which point you’re really starting to consider buying if you’re the Seattle Mariners. Fun! Competitive! Baseball!
Pick: Seattle to win +125. Low confidence.
