Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,381 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures Monday through Friday these days. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
One of these picks is aimed at maximizing value. The other is aimed at making our portfolio more robust.
If you’ve been following along this week, you know the Toronto one is a value maximizer. The Blue Jays are undervalued by certain sportsbooks: They’re clearly the third-best American League team, judged by a combination of on-paper talent and on-field results; They stand some chance of missing the playoffs but not much; They have a fairly solid chance of playing the Wild Card Series at home. We really like the Blue Jays right now.
The White Sox add some robustness. They’re the likeliest team to win the AL Central despite sitting in third place right now, and while the AL Central winner is decently likely to be the worst team in the entire playoff field, whoever it is will get to play the Wild Card Series at home, which is a nice advantage. Adding upside, the White Sox have more than a couple starting pitchers who could conceivably dominate individual games in October.
Where does this leave the AL pennant portfolio? Profit/loss units on it look like this, in order of FanGraphs pennant probability:
- Houston: +30.5
- New York: -26.0
- Toronto: +83.5
- Tampa Bay: +18.0
- Seattle: +18.0
- Chicago: +48.0
- Boston: -4.0
- Minnesota: -50.0
- Cleveland: +42.0
- Anaheim: -18.0
If we were to place no more bets on the ALCS until the end of the regular season, so long as the Twins lost the Central we’d be in good shape, with hedging routes available to mitigate the Yankees liability and the small amount that exists on the Red Sox. There’s a better-than-50% chance the Twins lose the Central.
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago to win +2200. Medium confidence.
