Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,057 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Today’s futures, today’s moneyline.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 58–46–4, we’re up 6.64 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. With last night’s win, July is back to being profitable, but the margin is smaller than one unit.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 137.58 units, or 13.2%.
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
Tyler Glasnow is pitching well, and Tyler Glasnow is especially pitching well over his last four starts. Tyler Glasnow did get to throw against the Royals in two of those starts, though, and while the Royals are a major league team, they’re not the Orioles, who—for whatever its worth—shelled the 29-year-old in their one meeting this year.
We’re not taking this bet because of that one shelling. We’re taking it because Glasnow’s season-to-date xERA and FIP are underperforming his projected FIP, and because even that projected FIP has FanGraphs flashing positive value on Baltimore. But the shelling doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Baltimore to win +165. Low confidence. (Gibson and Glasnow must start.)
ALCS
Not a ton of movement these last few days in terms of where the value lies. We could go back to the Cardinals in the division market, but those odds did shorten. The new number makes the eROI close enough to that of the Blue Jays to where we think St. Louis’s sell probability probably lowers it past the point of being our second-best play today. So, we’re riding these two horses again. For those curious, here are how our ALCS scenarios break down:
| Team | ALCS Net Profit/Loss |
| Baltimore | 546 |
| Boston | 226 |
| Minnesota | 96 |
| Toronto | 63 |
| Texas | 27 |
| Cleveland | 22 |
| Anaheim | 2 |
| Seattle | -12 |
| New York | -32.5 |
| Tampa Bay | -39.5 |
| Houston | -70 |
Most likely, we’re looking at having four good options make the playoffs on the AL side and two bad options make it. Unfortunately, we’re looking at a 2 v. 2 split for us in the ALDS round in the most probable outcome, something like Rays vs. Orioles and Rangers vs. Astros. Hopefully the Orioles do get that far and give us a ton of leverage, but in case they don’t, we’ll keep pouring our resources into the Blue Jays and Twins as long as the present situation holds.
Pick: Toronto to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1400. Medium confidence.
