Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,583 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures. Moneylines will return on Friday. We might take tomorrow off. To be determined.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
ALCS
Well, we’re back in on the Tigers.
This isn’t as high-value a play as all those division futures we placed on Detroit earlier this week. What we’re doing here is taking advantage of positive value to keep a team profitable in a given market. Entering today, the Tigers were a break-even scenario for us in the ALCS. Now, they’re profitable again. The eROI was only around 10%, but we’ll happily take a 10% eROI. Basically, what we’re saying here is that we don’t think the Tigers are out of the race, and what we’re doing because of that is treating them like any other team.
Pick: Detroit to win +13500. Medium confidence.
NL West
This one’s about high value. The Giants are valuable at this price. It’s a gigantic longshot, but they’re not yet indicating that they’re going to sell, so we think the FanGraphs probability is accurate enough to use. The Dodgers really have been treading water lately, and while they should get hot at some point between now and October, there’s never a guarantee that the injury trend evens out. Just ask the Giants.
Pick: San Francisco to win +8000. Medium confidence.
