Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 351 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
San Diego @ Miami
Coming to notoriously pitcher-friendly Petco Park, it was expected that Manny Machado’s offensive numbers might take a bit of a hit. And they have, as his wRC+ has dropped from 141 last year to 122 over what’s been of 2019.
But interestingly, despite the switch from hitter-friendly (and especially home run-friendly) Camden Yards, Machado’s home run rate has increased. He’s on pace for just under 40, despite a career high of 37 (achieved both last year and in 2015).
Machado’s exit velocity has dropped about one mile per hour from last year, and his launch angle is down about a degree and a half. His hard-hit rate is 90% of what it was last year. Yet the home runs continue.
Without looking at Machado’s spray chart in the finest level of detail, it’s hard to say what’s going on, and the numbers are close enough to be simply a statistical anomaly. Still, it’s a curious development, one with which the Padres likely have no qualms.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Cleveland
Theoretically, throwing more innings means sacrificing results to an extent, as a pitcher is therefore throwing more innings while tired.
It’s possible this is what’s happening to Trevor Bauer.
Bauer has never thrown more than 190 innings in a season, yet to date, he leads the league by a fair margin with 138, on pace for 238, which would be the highest total baseball has seen since 2014.
Meanwhile, Bauer’s ERA has taken a step back this year, from 2.21 in 2018 to 3.65. More concerningly, his FIP (4.26) is worse than its career average (3.88).
Bauer is still, of course, immensely valuable, and I didn’t look into pitch counts, which could be impacting all this. But with the fifth-best bullpen FIP in baseball, and the fourth-fewest bullpen innings, Cleveland could probably stand to cut back on Bauer’s workload.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Arizona
The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff benefits from playing in Chase Field, which—since adding a humidor prior to last season—is one of the most run-preventative scoring environments in baseball.
But they also benefit from playing in front of a defense that grades out as baseball’s best, according to FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average. Arizona is at 49.7 in the mark, nearly seven runs better than the next-closest team (the Phillies, if you’re curious). True to the adage, the Diamondbacks are especially strong up the middle, as their three top defenders by the metric are their shortstop (Nick Ahmed), their second baseman/center fielder (Ketel Marte), and one of their catchers (Carson Kelly).
Defensive metrics, as is often noted here, are a work in progress among those working on such things. But regardless of their precision, the Diamondbacks (who, it should be noted, are only half a game back of the Brewers for the NL’s second wild card spot entering this four-game set) certainly aren’t bad defensively. Making Chase Field even more of a pitcher’s paradise.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
