Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,578 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 96–84–1 so far, down 6.15 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Los Angeles @ Philadelphia
We’ve got Aaron Nola—good, solid pitcher—pitching against Landon Knack—due for regression, viewed from both xERA/FIP vs. ERA and from a prospect rating vs. performance perspective. The Phillies’ bullpen is surprisingly fresh for a team that’s beaten the Dodgers two nights in a row. Bryce Harper’s hand is bruised, though, and he sat out last night, and the Phillies are rightly being cautious with him, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, etc.
The two questions I think you need to answer if you’re going to bet this game are 1) whether the Phillies will play to win up 2–0 in a series and 2) whether the Phillies will have their edge knowing their teammates’ playoff health is already being prioritized over short-term results. The great thing about the Phillies, I think, is that it’s reasonable to buy them on both these fronts. It’s so hard to measure makeup in baseball, and consensus cuts both ways, but I’d imagine that if you polled 100 people around the league on which team’s in the best headspace, 90 or more would name the Phils. Maybe this is baked into the odds and I’m walking into a trap, but that brings us back to Landon Knack, who is due for regression on two fronts.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –138. Low confidence. (Knack and Nola must start.)
NL Central
I do still think the Cubs are done. They’d need to go 10–4 over the next fourteen to believably buy at the deadline, and the worst teams they play over that stretch are the Diamondbacks and the Royals. To go 10–4 over those fourteen, they probably need to go 4–1 over these next five, a four-day gauntlet against the Orioles and the Cardinals featuring the Cardinals’ most established pitchers. Even that only puts them in the Wild Card conversation. This is a division bet. And Cody Bellinger might have broken a finger last night on his throwing hand.
But.
We have a process here, and the process says that when positive value is available on a team in a market where that team is currently an unprofitable outcome for our portfolio, we bet on that team. There are a few exceptions. None apply here.
The bullish case for the Cubs, and one I might make if I didn’t care more about my Cubs credibility than I do about my credibility regarding other teams, is that their remaining schedule is the easiest in the National League, and that for the next few weeks it only gets easier by the day. Beginning August 16th, they play 18 straight games against teams with current playoff probabilities south of ten percent. From there, it’s six against the Yankees and Dodgers and then more smooth sailing, with 13 of their final 16 against fellow current non-contenders (the other three are against the Phillies, whose median scenario involves clinching the NL East the weekend beforehand).
I do still think the Cubs are done.
But these odds are good enough to bite.
I suppose that’s the sportsbook’s job.
Pick: Chicago to win +3800. Medium confidence.
AL East
Much less hand-wringing here. We’re bullish on the Yankees conceptually and we currently have more down on the Orioles, at least in the East. One way to look at today’s markets is that they’ve underreacted to the last two days in Baltimore.
Pick: New York to win +120. Medium confidence.
