Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 334 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks today, both in MLB futures markets (the wind’s supposed to be blowing out in Arlington tonight, so nothing looks great in the one game happening).
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Before the picks themselves, I should give a brief explanation of what my objectives are with futures picks.
In general, my goal with these picks is to generate the highest possible average return on investment (ROI) per pick. With the idea being that if the average ROI is solidly positive, more people will read this, generating more traffic for The Barking Crow and—eventually—income for me.
However, the difference between a 6% ROI and a 12% ROI is not as significant in this setting as the difference between a 0% ROI and a 6% ROI. The biggest goal is to have a positive ROI, with the second being to have the largest positive ROI possible. This doesn’t affect daily picks, but it affects futures, because rather than hammering the picks the numbers say are the smartest (i.e., betting the house on the Nationals because the market is still undervaluing them), it’s better to be a bit risk-averse and try to corner markets, guaranteeing profits instead of aiming for the highest expected ROI.
Sometimes, of course, it’s still a good idea to play for upside. I put another pick down on the Nationals a couple weeks ago, even though it didn’t change the likelihood of me profiting in the NLCS market. And as the sample size gets large enough to wash out a big loss in a futures market, I’ll do more of this. But for the time being, cornering the markets is more of a goal, so while my general advice would be to take hard looks at the Nationals, Cubs, and Red Sox right now, as these three seem to be the most generally undervalued, I’m making the picks here in the context of previous picks.
Futures: ALCS Winner
I had the following picks down for the AL pennant winner entering today:
Houston +300. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Cleveland +600. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Minnesota +800. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/22/2019
These picks had me with an expected market ROI of 5% and roughly a 55% likelihood of profiting in the market, based on FanGraphs’ playoff odds (overall, my expected ROI on MLB futures picks is in the low 30%’s using FanGraphs’ numbers).
The glaring hole was, of course, the AL East, whose champion has at least a 50% chance of making the ALCS. And while it would be nice to grab the Yankees, as they’re the prohibitive AL East favorite and currently the team with the best record in the AL, they’re at +170 right now, much too close to even odds for a team with a middling rotation and few high-value prospects to turn into assets.
Still, I can chip away at the remaining 45% (the unprofitable possibilities within the market) with the Red Sox, who FanGraphs has at a 9.3% likelihood of winning the pennant, and the Vegas consensus has at +1300, which translates into an expected ROI of 30% on a pick made today.
The Red Sox, though only 5.8% likely to win the East according to FanGraphs, are a potent playoff team thanks to the increased value of top starters in the postseason.
Among AL pitchers with 70 or more innings pitched to date, David Price is tied for the lead in FIP. Chris Sale is seventh. Even Eduardo Rodriguez, who’s generally been middling, is at least in the top 25, ahead of Cleveland’s second-best, Tampa Bay’s third-best, New York’s third-best, and Houston’s second-best. The bullpen is, of course, a concern, and Boston doesn’t have a lot of resources in the minor leagues that could outbid, say, the Twins for a closer, but the offense is tied for the MLB lead in scoring even with all three starting outfielders hitting below their career average in wRC+.
At +1300, the Red Sox are a good value play to return to the World Series.
Pick: Boston +1300. Low confidence.
Futures: World Series Winner
Compared to my position with regard to the AL pennant, I was in good shape entering today in the World Series market, with the following picks down:
New York (AL) +600. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Houston +700. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Los Angeles (NL) +800. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Cleveland +1200. Low confidence (1 unit). 3/27/2019
Minnesota +1700. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/22/2019
Los Angeles (NL) +400. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/30/2019
Chicago (NL) +1200. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/30/2019
Boston +1300. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/30/2019
Washington +4500. Low confidence (1 unit). 5/30/2019
New York (AL) +600. Low confidence (1 unit). 6/21/2019
Some of these, of course, are better than others (Washington and Minnesota look good, Cleveland and Boston look bad). But on the whole, I entered the day with about a 63% likelihood of profiting off the market and an expected market ROI of 26%.
I never take futures picks if I’m not convinced their expected ROI should be positive—I don’t make that much of a sacrifice for the purpose of hedging. But I am willing to take a pick with only a slim positive expected ROI if it helps corner a market.
Taking the Astros at +375 to win the World Series is that kind of pick.
The Astros’ perception seems to have slipped recently, the product of a slump on their part and a surge by the Yankees. Still, as of right now, they have better starting pitching than the Yankees, an easier remaining schedule, and weaker teams lurking behind them in the division race. They also have a stronger farm system than their AL co-favorite.
For the majority of the season, FanGraphs has had the Astros as the World Series favorite. Even with justifiable doubts about the depth of their rotation, Justin Verlander’s ability to keep getting results, and the few holes in their lineup, they’re listed as 21.7% likely to bring Houston another title by November. At +375, that translates into a 3% expected ROI. Below my current average, but still positive, and something that raises my likelihood of profiting in the World Series market to 84%. Not cornered (the Braves are the biggest remaining hole), but close.
Pick: Houston +375. Low confidence.
