Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 789 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA
Louisiana Tech has exceeded high expectations in Conference USA play so far, trouncing Southern Miss in back-to-back games to open the league slate. Now, they get a tougher test, playing UTSA in San Antonio.
UTSA’s looking for their first conference win following a pair of road losses in Florida, the latter of which came to FIU in overtime this weekend. They do a lot of the little things—protecting the ball, grabbing defensive rebounds, and making free throws. Unfortunately, they don’t do the big things—making shots and getting stops.
Louisiana Tech does the big things.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida
Liberty is the story in the Atlantic Sun, and could very well enter the NCAA Tournament with just one loss. Behind them, though, and between them and the rest of the league, is North Florida.
The Ospreys currently project as about a nine-point underdog against Liberty on a neutral court, but would be favored against every other team in the league, even on the road. In a home game against one of the worst three teams in the conference, look for UNF to pour it on.
Pick: North Florida -11 (-105). Low confidence.
Northern Colorado @ Weber State
Strange as it may sound, this qualifies as a trap game for Northern Colorado, coming off a victory over two-time reigning Big Sky champion Montana and playing on the road.
It’s unclear yet if Kham Davis will return for Weber State. He’s missed the last two games with what I believe is a knee injury. It’s similarly unclear whether point guard Jerrick Harding will be at full strength. He rolled an ankle at the end of a game against Eastern Washington a week and a half ago, missed a game last Monday, and then played on Saturday, but was not 100%. If he puts up a line like Saturday’s (three for eight from the floor, three turnovers), it could be a long night for the Beekeepers Wildcats.
Even if Harding’s healthy, Northern Colorado’s a better team than the line suggests. They may not lead the Big Sky standings yet, but it’ll be a surprise if they don’t within a few weeks.
Pick: Northern Colorado -3 (-105). Low confidence.
