Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 826 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for the day.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Gardner-Webb @ UNC-Asheville
The risk here is that Gardner-Webb will get UNCA into foul trouble, force Mike Morrell to use his bench, and win over a handcuffed version of the home team. Gardner-Webb’s Jose Perez is in the 90th percentile nationally when it comes to getting to the free throw line, and Asheville’s Coty Jude, LJ Thorpe, and Lavar Batts all average four or more fouls per 40 minutes. Thorpe and Batts have the highest usage rates on the roster, so their absence changes the offense, and not in a good way. Beyond that, Jude’s backup down low—Jeremy Peck—fouls at an even higher rate than Jude, so in addition to becoming shorthanded, Asheville could be forced to play small.
Even with this prominent risk, UNC-Asheville’s a good play tonight.
Upon a closer look, the risk, though still significant, begins to diminish. Tajion Jones is far and away UNCA’s most efficient offensive weapon, hitting 46% of his threes and posting the highest offensive rating on the team by a wide margin. In instances in which Thorpe and/or Batts go to the bench, Jones should see his usage rate increase, and while that likely lessens his efficiency, it’s still a better plug than giving all those possessions to, say, Trent Stephney. What’s more, if UNCA goes small, Gardner-Webb doesn’t benefit as much as most teams would—they, too, have a guard-heavy roster. Lastly, the same traits that lead UNCA to foul with frequency lead them to force a lot of turnovers, and while Gardner-Webb isn’t turnover-prone, they also aren’t turnover-averse.
Every pick bears risk, but the overall expected payout for this is the highest on the board today, and the worst-case scenario isn’t as bad as it looks.
Pick: UNC-Asheville -1 (-110). Low confidence.
South Alabama @ Georgia State
Like UNC-Asheville, Georgia State is foul-prone. Unlike UNC-Asheville, it’s not their highest-used players committing the fouls.
Yes, Jalen Thomas limits his minutes through fouling too often, but Corey Allen and Justin Roberts—who together take the majority of the Panthers’ shots—have no such issues, and against a team that routinely gets torched from deep, either or both is a candidate to go off tonight.
South Alabama’s ability to get to the line shouldn’t be discounted. But it’s not the only thing going on tonight, and even if the Jaguars cause Georgia State some trouble, GSU should escape.
Pick: Georgia State to win (-240). Low confidence.
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville
Turnovers are the risk tonight for Jacksonville, with Zach Scott from FGCU giving the Dolphin guards a lot to handle.
That’s just one aspect of the game, though, and it’s pretty much the only one that looks promising for a team that continues to try to rely on the three when they’re one of the 35 worst three-point shooting teams in the country. Against a Jacksonville team that, for all its flaws, excels at perimeter defense, this should work even more poorly than usual.
Pick: Jacksonville to win (-230). Low confidence.
