Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 770 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Illinois @ Michigan State
Cassius Winston reportedly returns tonight after getting a game off to rest a bone bruise. Conference play begins in earnest for two teams with a lot to prove.
For Michigan State, the questions surround whether the Spartans are, in fact, one of the best teams in the country. They began the year thought by many to be not just one of the best, but the singular best. Since, they’ve underwhelmed while dealing with the horrific loss of Winston’s younger brother, Zachary. To be fair, a five-point loss to Virginia Tech could happen to anybody, and losses to Kentucky and Duke are par for the course. But the absence of a victory better than the one over Seton Hall on the road, in which a hobbled Myles Powell still scored 37 on Tom Izzo’s suspect defense, sheds some doubt on Sparty.
For Illinois, the question is whether or not an NCAA Tournament berth will happen. The Illini have a nice victory over Michigan to their name, but not much else, and their home loss to Miami in the Big Ten/ACC challenge strikes a dark mark on the team sheet.
There will be time for all of this to work itself out. In the short-term, the question is whether Illinois’s defense can stop what’s been a highly efficient, fairly well-rounded Michigan State offense. The answer to that is more likely no than yes, and while it’s doubtful the Spartans will land at 95 or 101, as they’ve done in their last two against directional Michigan schools, it’s believable that they’ll end up somewhere in the low 80’s.
Pick: Over 144 (-110). Low confidence.
Oregon State @ Utah
Utah, though inconsistent, hasn’t really been a disappointment this year, at least to those with reasonable expectations. They opened the season 114th in KenPom. They’re now 109th. And though they’ve bounced around at times, the swings haven’t been extreme. Yes, they’ve lost to Coastal Carolina and Tulane, and yes, they’ve beaten Kentucky and BYU, but even those results haven’t moved the needle too much on Larry Krystkowiak’s team.
Oregon State, on the other hand, has indeed disappointed. After a strong November, they entered December within striking distance of the bubble. A 15-point loss to Texas A&M later, they’re licking their wounds entering conference play. For the Beavers to make a move, they might need to win tonight on the first leg of the Pac-12 high-altitude road trip. If they lose, they’re staring down a potential 2-4 start to conference play, a projection that relies on beating Arizona State at home and Washington State on the road, neither of which is a sure thing.
Whether Oregon State does win tonight is close to a tossup, but it leans towards the Beavers. Utah does a number of things well, and it’s possible they’ll get Kylor Kelley and Tres Tinkle into foul trouble, but it’s more likely that Kelley shuts things down inside on one end while causing problems for Utah’s inexperienced bigs on the other.
Pick: Oregon State +2 (-110). Low confidence.
UCLA @ Washington
Expectations finally seem to have reset for Washington following their Christmas night loss to Houston. The Huskies are a fine team with a very realistic tournament shot. They are not one of the 25 best teams in the country, or even one of the 35 best.
This is to the bettor’s advantage. Nothing changed for Washington when they lost to Houston. They were beaten on a neutral court by a better team, by only four points. They’re the same team they always were. Yet, suddenly, they’re being undervalued.
That, or UCLA’s being overvalued, which is also possible. The Bruins are a bad team (by power conference standards), and they might be in free-fall entering Pac-12 play, having lost to Cal State-Fullerton on Saturday at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA should board tonight, as they always do, but their inability to defend well should give Washington plenty of time at the free-throw line, and plenty of easy baskets.
Pick: Washington -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
