Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,696 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 53–51 and we’re down 9.83 units. We’ve been betting a lot of moneyline favorites lately, so our win–loss record might look fine, but it needs to be better. Things have been going well lately, but we’re pivoting to some slightly different approaches tonight, mostly because what we’ve been trying isn’t really available with tonight’s sparse slate.
SMU @ North Texas
This is a tough one to read, but if North Texas is indeed getting Rubin Jones and John Buggs back, and if SMU is due for regression from being the top three-point field goal percentage defense in the country (credit: kenpom), and if the crowd is as into it as we’d expect this crowd to be, and if the game is close and fouls/overtime are on the table…
We like the over the most.
Pick: Over 126 (–125). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a good team without good wins, and while this wouldn’t qualify as the latter, we do think they might pour it on. Strategically, if they have the opportunity, that would be a wise thing to do. Pumping up their own NET is one of their more feasible strategies for surviving the bubble.
Pick: Gonzaga –9 (–110). Low confidence.
